Blue Jay Opener

[davepratt]

I've never missed opening day for the boys of summer and this will be no exception. Anybody else tuning in?

[Golden Bear]

I'm watching if the rain pushes back the start long enough for people with jobs to watch. I can't stand the archaic tradition of having opening day in the afternoon.

Fortunately, it's delayed until at least two. Back that puppy up another hour or two and I might be able to catch the end (particularly if it's a typically slow Yankee game).

Otherwise, I'll catch some of it on the radio in the office. Baseball's a better radio sport, anyway.

I'll be at the home opener on Friday, though. With the exception of 2004, when I was out of the country, I've been to every home opener since 1982. I'm not sure if the home opener will count as a Flashback Friday, but I hope so, so I can see the classic uniforms in action again.

[cldale]

One of the advantages of working on a trading floor, lots of TV's around you, all tuned to Sportsnet. Stupid rain delays. Sigh.

[sharkhark]

I can't watch it I am working from the home today. I am not looking at the rain delay tv coverage to my side...I am totally focused on the work at hand;)

[davepratt]

I'm watching if the rain pushes back the start long enough for people with jobs to watch.
Hey. That's not very nice. I've got a job:D

I can't watch it I am working from the home today. I am not looking at the rain delay tv coverage to my side...I am totally focused on the work at hand;)
That's what I like to hear. A good company man:D

[Merlot]

I'm watching if the rain pushes back the start long enough for people with jobs to watch. I can't stand the archaic tradition of having opening day in the afternoon.

Fortunately, it's delayed until at least two. Back that puppy up another hour or two and I might be able to catch the end (particularly if it's a typically slow Yankee game).

Otherwise, I'll catch some of it on the radio in the office. Baseball's a better radio sport, anyway.

I'll be at the home opener on Friday, though. With the exception of 2004, when I was out of the country, I've been to every home opener since 1982. I'm not sure if the home opener will count as a Flashback Friday, but I hope so, so I can see the classic uniforms in action again.

I know what you mean but nothing better then a afternoon game in th emiddle of summer. Sweating in the seats and dehydrating yourself even more with some over priced draft beer.:rofl:

[fresh]

GO JAYS!!!

I dont think ive ever been more excited for a jays team since the 92/93 years. Once Rolen is back and Ryan can get back to being the closer, this jays team looks solid in every aspect.

An amazing infield, great power and speed from the out field, and finally a pitching staff that can be solid (as long as halladay and burnett can stay healthy).

The yanks and sox have power, but both teams lack pitching this year. If the jays can stay healthy, there is no reason why they cant eek out the division or challenge for the wildcard!

[Golden Bear]

I think you're looking at a third place finish unless a lot of things go their way. The offence will be hard pressed to score more than 800 runs -- 825 at the outside -- and the pitching will have to be better than last year. The latter is more doable than the former, though pitching numbers tend not to fluctuate as much as hitting numbers from year to year.

I think I've said this before on this board, but I'll repeat it. Assuming a relatively good amount of health, I see the Jays winning 88 or 89 games. If they surprise either way, I think they're more likely to surprise by contending than by going south.

I think there's legitimate reason for optimism, anyway. It's not where I'm putting my money, but contention could happen.

[cldale]

I think you're looking at a third place finish unless a lot of things go their way. The offence will be hard pressed to score more than 800 runs -- 825 at the outside -- and the pitching will have to be better than last year. The latter is more doable than the former, though pitching numbers tend not to fluctuate as much as hitting numbers from year to year.

I think I've said this before on this board, but I'll repeat it. Assuming a relatively good amount of health, I see the Jays winning 88 or 89 games. If they surprise either way, I think they're more likely to surprise by contending than by going south.

I think there's legitimate reason for optimism, anyway. It's not where I'm putting my money, but contention could happen.

I will be surprised if the offense hits 775 GB. Our pitching will be good, but I don't see a repeat of 2007.

And we're already seeing the injury bug creeping into things. Rolen out till May (and don't discount that he's not going to be 100% when he comes back, hand injuries have a habit of lingering for a long time).

Basically, this team needs everything to break right, and things to go wrong for a couple other teams in order to smell the playoffs.

[davepratt]

I can't believe they called off the game because worse weather is headed their way. They could have started on time and played in the light mist.

[Golden Bear]

I will be surprised if the offense hits 775 GB. Our pitching will be good, but I don't see a repeat of 2007.



And we're already seeing the injury bug creeping into things. Rolen out till May (and don't discount that he's not going to be 100% when he comes back, hand injuries have a habit of lingering for a long time).



Basically, this team needs everything to break right, and things to go wrong for a couple other teams in order to smell the playoffs.
They scored 753 last year with significant injuries, so I don't see 775 as being an upper-end projection. The health of Wells is critical, of course ... but if you look at it as adding a Wells and an Overbay to last year's lineup (both were injured and invisible all last year), 20+ runs isn't unlikely at all. Plus, we've upgraded offensively at short -- it's only Eckstein, but he's far better offensively than the black hole John McDonald. The only likely downgrade is in left simply because Stairs is unlikely to be as effective two years in a row ... but remember that the team has added significant depth, most notably in Scutaro (who is excellent at getting on base) and Barajas.

The "positive" about Rolen's injury is that it was a freak injury that should create no lingering problems once it heals. He'll be "100%" when he returns because it's not the sort of injury that prevents someone from returning to 100%. His shoulder could be a question mark down the road given his history.

This is why I say "with health". If Wells and Rolen are healthy, the team will, in my opinion, score 800-825 runs. I can't see them scoring 775 or fewer unless there are significant injuries.

Wait ... didn't I already have this discussion with you? Are you saying I didn't sway you? Come on!!! Let my magic powers of persuasion have their way, fer cryin' out loud. You will agree with me! You must!

[cldale]

Haha, I am VERY bearish on the Jays this year. I guess because my opinion tends to be self-generated I am not prone to being convinced otherwise :)

At least I know someone else on the board knows the game though :) Its sometimes tough having to make arguments like "Wins are a meaningless stat" over and over again.

They scored 753 last year with significant injuries, so I don't see 775 as being an upper-end projection. The health of Wells is critical, of course ... but if you look at it as adding a Wells and an Overbay to last year's lineup (both were injured and invisible all last year), 20+ runs isn't unlikely at all. Plus, we've upgraded offensively at short -- it's only Eckstein, but he's far better offensively than the black hole John McDonald. The only likely downgrade is in left simply because Stairs is unlikely to be as effective two years in a row ... but remember that the team has added significant depth, most notably in Scutaro (who is excellent at getting on base) and Barajas.

The "positive" about Rolen's injury is that it was a freak injury that should create no lingering problems once it heals. He'll be "100%" when he returns because it's not the sort of injury that prevents someone from returning to 100%. His shoulder could be a question mark down the road given his history.

This is why I say "with health". If Wells and Rolen are healthy, the team will, in my opinion, score 800-825 runs. I can't see them scoring 775 or fewer unless there are significant injuries.

Wait ... didn't I already have this discussion with you? Are you saying I didn't sway you? Come on!!! Let my magic powers of persuasion have their way, fer cryin' out loud. You will agree with me! You must!

[fresh]

I agree with all of your points that health is the Jays major roadblock.

Granted the Jays lost some power last year trading glaus for rolen, but in essence, the lost power and run support will increase by upgrading eckstein over macdonald who was only a defensive dynamo.

Then take the replacement of reed johnson for shannon stewart which i think is an upgrade both offensively and defensively (with reed being out for almost 4 months last year).

Plus you have rios who can easily hit 30+ homers this year, and now Aaron Hill building on the strong 1st half of last year where he was the teams best player.

As well you now have overbay healthy who missed most of last year with hand injuries and wasnt the same the rest of the year.

The jays had the best era in the 2nd half of the season and always finish the season strong. The pitchers need to be healthy and consistent and can take on the red sox and yankees any day. Both teams have very old pitchers and unknowns at the 3,4 5 spots. The jays on the other hand have their entire starting staff returning from last year all with another year of experience.

On paper, the jays have a top 5 pitching staff that could turn out to be the next diamonback staff (who undoubatbly have the best pitching staff in baseball).

Now i am overly optimistic here, but thats what makes opening day fun. Everyone starts in the same spot and everyone has the same chances of making the playoffs. Look at the tigers two years ago - did anyone see them storming out of the gate like that???

Just need to stay healthy and should be a competitive season!

[cldale]

Granted the Jays lost some power last year trading glaus for rolen, but in essence, the lost power and run support will increase by upgrading eckstein over macdonald who was only a defensive dynamo.

If you take McD's runs created + runs saved (on defense) and compare that to Ecksteins runs created + runs saved, JM is predicted to win by 20 runs.

Shortstop is THE premium defensive position, which means its a spot where exceptional glovework is worth a lot. That we have a staff of groundball generating pitchers only makes it more of a benefit.

Also, the gap between JMac's and Eck's offense is not as big as many believe. Eckstein is getting older and as a max effort guy you can expect his stats to drop off quickly. All it takes is for his OBP to fall like 25 points vs. last year and he becomes a HUGE liability.


Then take the replacement of reed johnson for shannon stewart which i think is an upgrade both offensively and defensively (with reed being out for almost 4 months last year).

Eh, Johnson was a ++ defender in LF. Stewart should be better with the bat, and a platoon of Stairs + Stewart is decent, but it's going to be a marginal difference once you factor in the defensive downgrade.

Too many people are looking at this season and saying "IF, IF, IF, IF then MAYBE".

What that amounts to is: There is a lot of upside, but also a low probability of reaching that upside, which equals a LOT of risk in this team.

[fresh]

Also, the gap between JMac's and Eck's offense is not as big as many believe. Eckstein is getting older and as a max effort guy you can expect his stats to drop off quickly. All it takes is for his OBP to fall like 25 points vs. last year and he becomes a HUGE liability.

But as a bona fide leadoff hitter who has amazing speed, he can generate more runs and extra bases that jmac could never be counted on to do.

[Golden Bear]

Haha, I am VERY bearish on the Jays this year. I guess because my opinion tends to be self-generated I am not prone to being convinced otherwise :)

At least I know someone else on the board knows the game though :) Its sometimes tough having to make arguments like "Wins are a meaningless stat" over and over again.I hate it. I talk about baseball on a non-baseball board so that I can smugly use terms like VORP and RC27, and can laugh at people who use batting average as a meaningful stat. Then someone like you comes along and pulls WARP out of their butt.

Now I get serious baseball talk here, and on my baseball boards have to deal with a guy who's pretending to have a press pass and direct access to JP Ricciardi. Maybe I'll start talking golf there and someone will agree with me that Jack is the best.

[Golden Bear]

Woohoo! This thread's current again!

Opening day, take two! Glad I get to actually see it on TV. Well, as much as TSN's broadcast team can be considered "TV".

At last check there were showers in NYC, expected to clear by 6 and we should get the game in.

Doc's on the mound -- he's 10-4 lifetime vs. the Yankees, and has won 7 of his last 8.

[cldale]

GB,

Thats 1 game down, and 1 game in which poor defensive play by Eckstein was a contributing factor to losing a close game.

Good thing his offense offset that.

Oh wait.

And yes, I WILL be doing this for the rest of the season :) Haha.

[Golden Bear]

Ah, but Wells looking like the guy we need him to be tonight. And King Lyle has been hot since the spring. If these two guys hit all year we could be in line for those 800-825 runs.

Thomas, however, looks older by the minute. I've been saying for a while this could be his last season. But the way he looked in spring and the first couple of games ... I don't know that he'll last the season. He's way behind any heat he's shown. He got off to a slow start last year, too ... but he wasn't looking this outclassed back then. It's actually a little sad to watch.

[sharkhark]

Hey guys, I am wondering if one of you can remember what jp's actual original 'plan' was. I have poked fun by asking if he is in his 8th yr of 5yr plan but that is joking.
Seriously what was his original plan? I know he laid out publically a plan that said first couple years were development, then make playoffs, then maybe divisional success etc.
I remember part way into his plan he changed it and added a yr or two due to 'unexpected' injuries etc.
Although I do not remember the terms I do know it ended a long long time ago and the fact we have not seen post season since 'touch em all joe' is a sign he should be gone. Even though the jays have a post season chance I still say get rid of him.

[Big Shooter]

Hey guys, I am wondering if one of you can remember what jp's actual original 'plan' was. I have poked fun by asking if he is in his 8th yr of 5yr plan but that is joking.
Seriously what was his original plan? I know he laid out publically a plan that said first couple years were development, then make playoffs, then maybe divisional success etc.
I remember part way into his plan he changed it and added a yr or two due to 'unexpected' injuries etc.
Although I do not remember the terms I do know it ended a long long time ago and the fact we have not seen post season since 'touch em all joe' is a sign he should be gone. Even though the jays have a post season chance I still say get rid of him.

Although I like JP, my problem with him is, he acts like he's The Manager (i.e., too hands-on!), he should take tips from Brian Colangelo...you hire a Coach for a Reason!!



Thomas, however, looks older by the minute. I've been saying for a while this could be his last season. But the way he looked in spring and the first couple of games ... I don't know that he'll last the season. He's way behind any heat he's shown. He got off to a slow start last year, too ... but he wasn't looking this outclassed back then. It's actually a little sad to watch.

I'll give The Big Hurt a pass, at least until the weather gets Warmer!
...we've got enough Big Guns on the team, and at the very least, he presents a "threat"....it's not like Giambi has been any better for the Yankees so far!! ;)

[cldale]

Ah, but Wells looking like the guy we need him to be tonight. And King Lyle has been hot since the spring. If these two guys hit all year we could be in line for those 800-825 runs.

Thomas, however, looks older by the minute. I've been saying for a while this could be his last season. But the way he looked in spring and the first couple of games ... I don't know that he'll last the season. He's way behind any heat he's shown. He got off to a slow start last year, too ... but he wasn't looking this outclassed back then. It's actually a little sad to watch.

Yeah, that was encouraging for wells tonight, was it just me or did he have a little extra bounce in his step after that home run?

I don't understand why you bat Thomas at #5 until he proves he can hit again. If I were Gibby I'd have him at #9 until he showed he has come around, and if doesn't show it in 6 weeks the team better not keep playing him, because his contract option for next year is linked to PA (380 or something like that).

Overbay is looking good, no doubt. He wasn't the same last year when he came back from his hand injury.

Eckstein looks terrible, both sides of the ball. Without me saying it to her, my wife has already identified him as the guy on the team she dislikes, especially since she loves JM.

[Golden Bear]

I don't understand why you bat Thomas at #5 until he proves he can hit again. If I were Gibby I'd have him at #9 until he showed he has come around, and if doesn't show it in 6 weeks the team better not keep playing him, because his contract option for next year is linked to PA (380 or something like that).
I'm not sure about #9, but definitely bottom of the order. Batting him fifth is unwise. I don't see how anyone can watch the way he's swinging a bat and not be alarmed.


Overbay is looking good, no doubt. He wasn't the same last year when he came back from his hand injury.

Eckstein looks terrible, both sides of the ball. Without me saying it to her, my wife has already identified him as the guy on the team she dislikes, especially since she loves JM.

I think we can give Eckstein a little bit more time before judging him. Remember that Johnny Mac looked bad DEfensively at the start of last year -- he threw a couple of balls away in April, as I recall, and people were thinking his defence was slipping.

There's no point having Eckstein if he's not getting on base, but we'll have to see how that goes.

Hey guys, I am wondering if one of you can remember what jp's actual original 'plan' was. I have poked fun by asking if he is in his 8th yr of 5yr plan but that is joking.
Seriously what was his original plan? I know he laid out publically a plan that said first couple years were development, then make playoffs, then maybe divisional success etc.
I remember part way into his plan he changed it and added a yr or two due to 'unexpected' injuries etc.


There's been debate about whether he actually called it a "five year plan". He talked about where the team would be in five years, but never said that in the context of his "plan". It was more of an estimate -- the kind of plan he brought in should take five or six years to come to fruition.

The "plan" was as follows, in accordance with the Oakland model:

1. Cut payroll (at the time, it would have cost $80 million + to keep the 2001 team together).

2. Restock the farm system using primarily college players.

The reason for college-centric drafting was twofold: 1) college players would be able to be major-league ready more quickly, 2) college players are more likely than high school players to make the majors.

3. Sign cheap talent using undervalued stats such as OBP, OPS, RC, etc.

4. Once the team became contenders, the idea was to increase payroll, but to keep it relatively low by drawing on the re-stocked farm system to replace expensive players.

The plan has failed on a number of counts. Most notably, the farm system is not sustaining the major league team the way it was envisioned. It's a potentially good team, but aside from Aaron Hill, no one in the starting lineup was drafted under this "plan". Meanwhile, they've spent a lot of money to acquire players from outside, and have signed some very questionable contracts.

The drafting has been poor. JP came to town with a reputation for being a strong evaluator of talent, but that hasn't shown to be true. He's better than Ash in that regard, but Ash drafted better because he had a better team of scouts, which he inherited from Gillick. JP fired most of those scouts and replaced them with his own people.

As it stands now, the team is in a position where I believe it CAN contend, but to sustain a competitive team year-in, year-out, it will require, at least for the next few years, increasing payroll and holding on to expensive players or bringing new expensive players in from the outside, because there aren't many prospects we can look to, anytime soon. Snider is too far away to make any impact for at least three years, and Lind does not have the upside many hope for. Aside from those two, there are a gang of middling prospects, some of whom might surprise, but the farm system is pretty barren.

On the bright side, the focus on college drafting has been modified -- Snider was a high-school pick. JP did say in the early going that after a few years of college drafting, they would start looking to high-schoolers, so this wasn't really an about face. But it could be encouraging if the Jays take flyers on a a few more high-schoolers with talent in the coming drafts.

I'd say, though, that it will take at least three very good drafts to fix what's wrong with our farm system, and that means if we wanted to go back to JP's original plan, we're looking at five or six years before the self-sustaining farm system could ever truly be realized. The team he's built is the exact opposite of the team he promised to build.

[cldale]

There's no point having Eckstein if he's not getting on base, but we'll have to see how that goes.

People underestimate the differences between AL and NL. Decent against NL pitching is different from decent against AL pitching. Its basically like AAA vs. MLB.

3. Sign cheap talent using undervalued stats such as OBP, OPS, RC, etc.

This is the kicker for me. In constructing this team, JP has shown he has little regard for statistical analysis. If he did, Royce Clayton would never have been signed, Eckstein would never have been signed (say what you want, but JMac's WARP3 is higher than Ecksteins, AND he's cheaper).

I'd say, though, that it will take at least three very good drafts to fix what's wrong with our farm system, and that means if we wanted to go back to JP's original plan, we're looking at five or six years before the self-sustaining farm system could ever truly be realized. The team he's built is the exact opposite of the team he promised to build.

We agree here. I think that the guys we picked up this year (Aherns, Arencibia, Cecil) show promise, but they are 2-3 years away. I think Snider will be up with the team by the end of next year, possible sooner if he abuses AA pitching like he did in low A.

Personally I am hoping that by midseason the team is far enough out of the race that JP is forced to sell, and moves AJ to a contender (the Mets?) for positional help (I bet at the deadline, we could get Martinez from the Mets, or Heyward from the Braves for AJ).

[Big Shooter]

Personally I am hoping that by midseason the team is far enough out of the race that JP is forced to sell, and moves AJ to a contender (the Mets?) for positional help (I bet at the deadline, we could get Martinez from the Mets, or Heyward from the Braves for AJ).

Heyward, maybe, Martinez no way! :cookoo:

[cldale]

Heyward, maybe, Martinez no way! :cookoo:

Yeah, I'd prefer heyward to Martinez as well, but Atlanta probably doesn't need to pitching help as much as th emets.

Ideally, we'd trade AJ to the Braves for Heyward and Julio Teheran.

I wish JP had the balls to take a run at Salcedo. God I'd love to see a talent like that come through the Jays.

[Golden Bear]

I'm not sure that either player is realistic, simply because:

Heyward: I don't see the Braves being in contention this year. It could happen, but I think it's more likely they're a distant third behind the Mets and Phillies. So, I don't think it's likely they're making a big deadline deal that sacrifices future for a pitcher certain to use his opt-out clause if he's having the kind of season that would make someone want to acquire him in the first place.

Martinez: Maybe, simply because I wouldn't put it past Minaya to make a shortsighted deal. But on the other hand, he gave up most of the farm to get Santana and Martinez is one of the few prospects they have left who they're really putting a lot of stock into. Plus, their pitching may be okay if Martinez is healthy and effective, and Hernandez as well.

However, I wouldn't be averse to a deal that included Burnett and either one of these players, if the Jays are truly out of it.

[cldale]

I'm not sure that either player is realistic, simply because:

Heyward: I don't see the Braves being in contention this year. It could happen, but I think it's more likely they're a distant third behind the Mets and Phillies. So, I don't think it's likely they're making a big deadline deal that sacrifices future for a pitcher certain to use his opt-out clause if he's having the kind of season that would make someone want to acquire him in the first place.

Martinez: Maybe, simply because I wouldn't put it past Minaya to make a shortsighted deal. But on the other hand, he gave up most of the farm to get Santana and Martinez is one of the few prospects they have left who they're really putting a lot of stock into. Plus, their pitching may be okay if Martinez is healthy and effective, and Hernandez as well.

However, I wouldn't be averse to a deal that included Burnett and either one of these players, if the Jays are truly out of it.

I have the Braves as a sleeper in the NL East. I don't think the Mets have the pitching, even with Santana, and their lineup at positions is getting old outside of Reyes and Wright.

I'm not overly stoked about the Phillies either, although I think the Phillies have a better shot at the East than the Mets.

Its a wishlist for sure.. Heyward is a crazy talent... I was thinking of picking him up in my Fantasy Dynasty league (every team has 25 actives and a reserve of 15 prospects, and all 40 are keepers from year to year). I had 3 picks in the first round of our prospect draft (3,7,8) due to trades I'd made. Nailed Porcello at #3, and Heyward went at 5. So I was stuck with Schafer and Desmond Jennings at 7 & 8.

[Golden Bear]

Home opener tonight ... The Jays wearing the powder-blue pullovers for the first time in 20 years. I hated those uniforms twenty years ago, but it will be fun seeing them again.

The powder blues always remind me of the time I went down to Detroit for the next-to-last game of the 87 season. It was the only Jays road game I ever went to, and the only time I saw the team playing in the powder blues in person (until tonight, of course). I was sitting in the upper deck in centre field, and the image of the ball going between Manny Lee's powder-blue legs in the bottom of the twelfth is forever burned into my mind.

It was one of the best games I've ever been to, though. Jack Morris went 9 innings for the Tigers, Mike Flanagan went an insane 11 innings for the Jays.