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Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

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  • #46
    Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

    Originally posted by dmcdam View Post
    Range limitations.
    99% of people do not drive their vehicles anywhere near current range limits each day. Never mind those of 8 years from now.

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    • #47
      Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

      Originally posted by SingleWalking View Post
      Unless there are going to be plugs everywhere for charging, I don't think it will be that easy. Hydro prices aren't free either.

      If someone buy a gasoline vehicle, the engine will last longer than you want to keep it. As far as I know those battery cells won't last as long and replacement will be more expensive. Yet the EV not cheap enough to throw away and start again.

      Car buying is a major investment that I think most of the population don't buy another one for years, could be 10+ because they cannot afford to. EV has to prove themselves they will last as long as gasoline models and cheap / easy to maintain that even Crappy Tire or some dive can handle it cheaply. Don't think Tesla maintenance is that low, not sure.
      There are lots of challenges to the EV market, reliability of the electric motors will not likely be one of them. They are so much simpler than combustion engines with so fewer moving parts. Fundamentally that should lead to lower maintenance costs, my neighbour has a Tesla S and he says maintenance is cheap and fast.
      Super capacitors are promising, lots of research is being done with them but remain unproven in vehicles as the primary source of power. Cost of the battery replacement right now is an issue, can be as much as 60% of the car's value. That's partly a function of scale.
      IF the manufacturers can agree on a size and technology and that's a big IF, then costs can be reduced dramatically. Virtually all EV batteries are made up of multiple cells, so deciding on a base size for the building blocks of the battery is something that could reduce costs quickly. Similar to when toy companies started using AA, C and D alkaline cells. It would also make charging facilities easier to manage and swap-out's much easier if they also wanted to pursue that option. But it will remain expensive if multiple technologies and sizes are used.
      One other challenge is apartments. If you want to change at night, you need a charging station in your parking garage, ideally at you parking spot. Will management support installing a charger at your parking spot in the garage? Considering more and more people will move to apartments over the next decades, it going to require new thinking.

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      • #48
        Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

        Originally posted by dmcdam View Post
        Range limitations.
        Test drove the i3 today - really quite impressive and with the REX (range expander - which is a scooter/motorcycle engine that charges the batteries) as long as you can find 9 litres of gas you can get another 100km. In other words range anxiety may not be an issue as such anymore, at least with this type of backup capability for emergencies or bad planning.

        It was a funky cool test drive - if you haven't driven an EV, try it - its fun, especially the regenerative braking - touched the brake pedal under five times in a 30 minutes test drive.

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        • #49
          Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

          Originally posted by Gridiron View Post
          99% of people do not drive their vehicles anywhere near current range limits each day. Never mind those of 8 years from now.
          Oh I'm sure 8 years from now the range issues will be addressed but I am someone who can pile on the kms so for me an EV isn't a consideration for now. A day of driving all around the city followed by a 3 hr drive to the cottage. Don't always have the time in between that would allow for a full charge.

          I know it's coming but I don't like it. I have driven an EV and to me it felt like a golf cart. Not that they can't be fast, just don't like the feel at all.
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          • #50
            Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

            Originally posted by bl8d View Post
            Wondering if this switch has been anticipated to the degree that our present rising Hydro bills are a training utility, to get us used to when we become totally dependent on hydro, for everything, Hook-Line-Sinker.
            Isn't that the truth.

            I've been thinking a better alternative is bi-fuel - natural gas (CNG) and conventional gasoline (for the occasional long trip).
            Use a home fuelling station, and fill-up the CNG tank over night.

            Better Economics - CNG is approx. $1 per gallon of gasoline equivalent


            Lots of upfront costs, unless a local filling station, and you better keep your vehicle a long time.
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            • #51
              Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

              Despite a very impressive list of gizmo add-ons the Model S is not equipped with a spare tire.
              Spare tires add weight which reduces range. In the event of a flat, please contact Tesla roadside assistance. Emergency tire inflation kits are available for purchase.

              Tesla S curb-weight is 4650lbs. A 2017 Ford Taurus weighs 630lbs less.
              That's a big difference in Kinnetic energy transfer, in a crash.
              things change

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              • #52
                Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                Originally posted by bl8d View Post
                Despite a very impressive list of gizmo add-ons the Model S is not equipped with a spare tire.
                Spare tires add weight which reduces range. In the event of a flat, please contact Tesla roadside assistance. Emergency tire inflation kits are available for purchase.

                Tesla S curb-weight is 4650lbs. A 2017 Ford Taurus weighs 630lbs less.
                That's a big difference in Kinnetic energy transfer, in a crash.
                a lot of cars these days don't come with a spare actually. As for the weight, there are no shortage of SUV's, Pickups, etc. out there. I am not sure of your point.
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                • #53
                  Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                  Originally posted by Fredk View Post
                  Yeah, but that's the one that counts isn't it?

                  duffer_mcmulligan

                  I would expect the transformation of energy to move at the pace of technological advancement. The transformation from hay to gasoline took quite a few years while they worked out all the kinks in early automobiles.

                  Batteries are what's holding the EV back right now and advancements are incremental.

                  Hydrogen has it own tech issues to overcome, not the least of which is how to economically generate all that hydrogen.

                  Bl8d

                  When does the typical commuter use their vehicle and when is it at rest at home? We have significant under utilization of hydro after 9:00pm and before 6:00am. If you have timed charging at home for your EV there will be no impact on peak demand.

                  Long trim re-charges are another matter.
                  Hydrogen is easy to generate. Run anode and cathode through water and you get hydrogen and oxygen. 6th grade electrolysis. Fuel cell tech is actually pretty good now. The issue is getting filling stations set up. Tesla is spending the dough to get rapid chargers set up on many routes, but you still need 30-40 minutes to get a decent charge to get you anywhere. Inefficient time wise. Hydrogen you fill like a gas tank.

                  The 8 years discussion is somewhat foolhardy to think about for transformation to EV. The numbers don't support it. We recently made the 1 millionth EV. Capacity is currently around 100,000 new EV per year. While capacity is growing, it isn't fast enough. There are ~253mm cars on the road in the US alone, average age 11.3 years. About 7.4mm cars sold annually. Even getting EV manufacturing capacity to 1mm per year (a ten fold increase from today) , only displaces about 14% of annual sales. Replacing the whole fleet is a 30-50 year process. And we haven't even analyzed where all the material to make those batteries will come from. I have no idea if you can get the materials mined fast enough.

                  That's why I think hydrogen is the better potential alternative. Longer range, renewable fuel easy to make, and still get the performance of electricity ( it is electricity that drives the wheels in a hydrogen vehicle.) it is just that EV tech is a little quicker out the gate at the moment and it has a very dynamic proponent in Musk and Tesla.

                  Definitely interesting to see how it shakes out.
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                  • #54
                    Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                    Originally posted by bl8d View Post
                    Despite a very impressive list of gizmo add-ons the Model S is not equipped with a spare tire.
                    Spare tires add weight which reduces range. In the event of a flat, please contact Tesla roadside assistance. Emergency tire inflation kits are available for purchase.

                    Tesla S curb-weight is 4650lbs. A 2017 Ford Taurus weighs 630lbs less.
                    That's a big difference in Kinnetic energy transfer, in a crash.
                    How much range can a spare tire effect? Would you have to calculate an approximation of range based on the weight of your passengers?

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                    • #55
                      Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                      Originally posted by duffer_mcmulligan View Post
                      Hydrogen is easy to generate. Run anode and cathode through water and you get hydrogen and oxygen. 6th grade electrolysis.
                      How cost effective is it?
                      ...
                      Definitely interesting to see how it shakes out.
                      Yup. Renewables are here to stay. The lower price of oil will just be a driver for further innovation.
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                      • #56
                        Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                        Originally posted by guitarman View Post
                        How much range can a spare tire effect? Would you have to calculate an approximation of range based on the weight of your passengers?
                        I thought all (most) cars went to the smaller spare tires because of the improved efficiency (which they needed to achieve to meet changing regulations). So I guess it makes a difference. Your point about passengers is interesting though - I've never heard anyone talk about how the range of an EV gets reduced.

                        4 people with golf bags must be quite different than driving solo in a Speedo.

                        Originally posted by Fredk View Post
                        How cost effective is it?

                        Yup. Renewables are here to stay. The lower price of oil will just be a driver for further innovation.
                        A friend worked for Ballard Power Systems some years ago. They're big in the hydrogen fuel cell game.

                        They're doing a deal with VW. http://canada.autonews.com/article/2...-the-auto-game

                        At the time my friend worked for them, they were trying to sell roof-top systems for buildings in China. The idea was that you'd run the system off cheap hydro overnight to create hydrogen from tap water and store it in tanks. Then, during the day when hydro is expensive, you'd create your own power supply for your building, running it off the fuel cells. Dunno what happened to that idea.

                        A major hurdle for making hydrogen cells ubiquitous (and available at "gas" stations everywhere) was ongoing concerns about the safety of large numbers of hydrogen tanks. "Oh, the humanity" kept going through people's minds...
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                        • #57
                          Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                          Originally posted by guitarman View Post
                          How much range can a spare tire effect? Would you have to calculate an approximation of range based on the weight of your passengers?
                          given that this was Tesla's compensation to increase the range, I have to assume it "weighed" into their calculation.
                          The car is already 600 lbs heavier than any comparable sedan in its class.
                          things change

                          Maga Lies Matter

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                          • #58
                            Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                            Originally posted by Jeffc View Post
                            a lot of cars these days don't come with a spare actually. As for the weight, there are no shortage of SUV's, Pickups, etc. out there. I am not sure of your point.
                            really?
                            things change

                            Maga Lies Matter

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                            • #59
                              Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                              Originally posted by bl8d View Post
                              really?
                              I think he is saying there are many cars out there that don't come with a spare, EV or otherwise. It's not only for weight savings, but space savings as well.
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                              • #60
                                Re: Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

                                What I envision for the future are chassis which are leased and shells which are purchased.

                                ICE will continue to compete with EVs. Syncrude will supplement fossil fuels.

                                We already harness methane from landfills to generate electricity.

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