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The Panic over the CoronaVirus [ Covid -19] is both Ridiculous and Unjustifed

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  • The Panic over the CoronaVirus [ Covid -19] is both Ridiculous and Unjustifed

    I am often uninformed but I am ready to change my skepticism at any time that the facts justify doing so . I think that most of the fear/panic is based on this becoming a pandemic . Based on the current info available the number of cases worldwide are a small fraction of the # of cases from the usual winter flu bug.

    CURRENT INFORMATION

    82,447 confirmed cases- 2,808 deaths [ 3.4%]- obviously these numbers are changing by the minute. Without proof my feeling is that most of the deaths are of unhealthy people and/or the elderly. For the healthy generally the illness is probably no worse than a mild form of the flu.

    Every year in North America thousands of people die from both the flu and pneumonia at a far higher % rate than from the coronavirus based on the info currently available.

    =============

    I will not be insulted if you call me an idiot !!


  • #2
    But innoculation/vaccination is part of a world government plot.
    I remember hearing some celebrity say that. And don't celebrities know everything?
    Last edited by Arthur Dailey; Feb 27, 2020, 11:58 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      It's quite simple to understand... let's take factual numbers to illustrate the point.

      In 2018-2019 in the United States:

      35,520,883 Influenza illnesses — 34,157 deaths or about 0.09%

      Let's take the death rate you cited of 3.4% (still changing)... If an equal number of people who contracted Influenza in 2018-2019, contracted COVID–19, that would mean ~1.2 million deaths.

      This doesn't even consider the fact that we do have flu vaccines... the same can't be said for COVID–19.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Sergio View Post
        It's quite simple to understand... let's take factual numbers to illustrate the point.

        In 2018-2019 in the United States:

        35,520,883 Influenza illnesses — 34,157 deaths or about 0.09%

        Let's take the death rate you cited of 3.4% (still changing)... If an equal number of people who contracted Influenza in 2018-2019, contracted COVID–19, that would mean ~1.2 million deaths.
        Where has using logic and facts ever got you in a discussion on here?
        WITB

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        • #5
          Lots to unpack other than just these stats?

          What is the true denominator in terms of infections? Those with mild infections likely never get tested. So, we *may* be looking at a 1% mortality rate. Counting deaths should be more exact but also could be an over exaggeration. If an 80 year dies of a heart attack suddenly and tests positive for corona....they will blame the corona. Well that patient may have died regardless from a plaque rupture.

          Now, this is still very high when compared to influenza. Many who get the flu every year may have had the flu shot. They will get some immunity even if the strain is not directly covered. So current flu mortality rates are much lower than if some new virus pops up (ie COVID19).

          Then, there is the virulence of COVID19. It appears to be very virulent so we are seeing significant rates of transmission. The media reporting every single case amplifies things as that infected individual may have a 1/100 chance of dying (and likely much much less if they have no comorbitidies and are not elderly).

          So, in summary, it is a big deal but the panic around it is a little extreme as well.

          bladerunner





          Originally posted by Sergio View Post
          It's quite simple to understand... let's take factual numbers to illustrate the point.

          In 2018-2019 in the United States:

          35,520,883 Influenza illnesses — 34,157 deaths or about 0.09%

          Let's take the death rate you cited of 3.4% (still changing)... If an equal number of people who contracted Influenza in 2018-2019, contracted COVID–19, that would mean ~1.2 million deaths.

          This doesn't even consider the fact that we do have flu vaccines... the same can't be said for





          COVID–19.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Bladerunner View Post
            Those with mild infections likely never get tested.
            The same goes for the flu...

            Comment


            • #7
              An interesting article just up on Marketwatch
              =================

              google the following


              Trump 'shocked' by deadliness of flu - It's killed at least 16,000 Americans this season
              ==================================================

              Could someone please google the above and post the link for me- Thank you.


              Last edited by seetrout699; Feb 27, 2020, 12:32 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                I think because it's new on the scene therefore having unknown consequences, the world is leaning towards "panic" mode....we must err on the side of worst case scenario

                Comment


                • #9
                  I believe flu stats are largely based on computer modelling; the low reporting rate of flu infections (most people treat themselves at home) means the medical community can only provide meaningful stats of severe cases, so computer modelling is deemed more accurate. If we believe that, then the death rates from influenza are likely more accurate than if we relied solely on documented cases.

                  COVID-19 stats, meanwhile, are based on actual cases, and computer modelling would be very inaccurate in the early stages of any virus.

                  And it's true that there may be many unreported mild cases of COVID-19, but the difference is that we can at least make decent estimates of the number of unreported flu cases, whereas with COVID-19, we have no idea.

                  The point being … comparing stats of flu vs. COVID-19 is not as useful as one might assume.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It's spreading very quickly and has proven to be hard to contain.

                    So even if it's only 2% death rate, that's a lot of people, if it ends up spreading to.... everyone everywhere. (yes, that's not likely).

                    It would be a huge mistake to take it lightly.

                    People "in the know" have closed off entire cities in China and towns in Italy. They've made drastic changes to flight schedules. They built that 1000 bed hospital in a week.

                    I think it's actually pretty serious.
                    "Confusion" will be my epitaph
                    ...Iggy

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'm with Seatrout and Bladerunner on this. The panic and hysteria is way overblown. social media is a curse propagating so much fear mongering and misinformation.

                      is this a serious situation, of course. The last big pandemic was in what 2008 with the Swine Flu which reports say killed over 500,000 worldwide. There was nowhere near the hysteria then, we probably glossed over it here on TGN.

                      As of last week The flu has killed over 14,000 in the USA alone , including 78 infants. I have not heard of any infants killed by Covid-19 and deaths are ~ 3,000. Will that get worse, yes, will it top the deaths from the flu....I doubt it but Swine Flu did kill hundreds of thousands so who knows.

                      the mortality rate of Covid-19 has been pegged at between 1-2%, much higher than the 0.1% for the flu. Like the flu Most deaths are in the over 65 age and those with pre existing conditions. ~ 14% over 80 who get it die compared to ~ 10% in that age group with the flu.

                      the ability of this virus to spread so easily is a big concern and that will and has had an economic impact....perhaps the biggest concern from the virus.

                      on the positive a vaccine has been sent for human trials so progress is being made on that front.
                      "Don't cry because it's over, Smile because it happened "

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Nope. It’s estimated every year.

                        bladerunner

                        Originally posted by Sergio View Post

                        The same goes for the flu...

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by seetrout699 View Post
                          An interesting article just up on Marketwatch
                          =================

                          google the following


                          Trump 'shocked' by deadliness of flu - It's killed at least 16,000 Americans this season
                          ==================================================

                          Could someone please google the above and post the link for me- Thank you.

                          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as...flu-2020-02-06
                          If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I see odd impacts around.

                            I was swimming in the AM at a pool in Oakville. I commented to one of the others during a rest - not that busy. He went on to say it is because of the Coronavirus, the pool is less busy. Seemed like an odd comment to me.

                            My wife is concerned that by our planned vacation in April comes, the borders will be closed and the world shut down.

                            I'm way less convinced.
                            Still getting the hang of this game!

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                            • #15
                              the Swine-flu, with its variants, despite a formidable death toll , is now old hat .It's treated as a normalized yearly event.

                              The coravid19 is that of an unknown origin, with a future unknown potency and that's what makes it so terrifyng.

                              In the World Press,it holds the potency of a bio-weapon.
                              things change

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