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US Presidential Election

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  • US Presidential Election

    The primaries are over, the conventions are done. Now the race goes into high gear.

    Biden got no bump from the Dem convention. Trump seems to be getting a small bump. Nothing unusual here.

    Biden, the guy they feared would not be able to raise funds, pulled in a whopping $365 million in August. Trump's numbers for August are not in, but his best month to date was $165 million. In previous months, the Dems have been consistently out-raising the GOP.

    The most recent national poll https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...-to-reelection is in line with most others giving Biden an 8 point lead.

    The interesting thing about this poll is how many people are set in who they will vote for.
    Worryingly for an incumbent who needs to improve his standing over the next nine weeks, the vast majority of voters say their minds are made up. Nine in 10 Biden supporters say they will back their candidate, while 87 percent of Trump voters said the same, an indication that few voters are truly up for grabs.
    That doesn't leave many swing voters. Its all about the base.

    The economy is underwater in this poll with 38% thinking its better than when Trump took office and 53% thinking its worse.

    It's all about the base...

    Things gonna get batshit crazy.

    Edit: There is also a Quinnipiac poll out that has Biden up 10 points with a similar 58% of those polled thinking they are worse off now than when Trump took office.

    On the law and order front 35% of those polled thought they would be safer under Trump while 42% say they would be safer under Biden. Who knew sleepy Joe was the law and order guy.
    Last edited by Fredk; Sep 2, 2020, 01:44 PM.
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  • #2
    It will be interesting to see how things play out.

    This could be the most controversial and action packed election/election campaign in modern history.
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    • #3
      Originally posted by Section ThirtyOne View Post
      It will be interesting to see how things play out.

      This could be the most controversial and action packed election/election campaign in modern history.
      At least one where a candidate flagrantly disregards the constitution with impunity and mischaracterizes events daily.

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      • #4
        Pretty sad...Biden or Trump, not much of a choice. Glad I do not have to make the decision.

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        • #5
          Things should tighten up over next couple of months. My prediction is another DT but maybe not as big a drubbing as he gave Hilary.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by vermin40 View Post
            Things should tighten up over next couple of months. My prediction is another DT but maybe not as big a drubbing as he gave Hilary.
            Unfortunately, Thats my feeling as well
            "Don't cry because it's over, Smile because it happened "

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            • #7
              Biden. The economy is still in the tank and the wacko conspiracy theories propagated by Trump are losing traction. I spoke to an American friend of mine from Dallas today. More and more Texans are turning to Biden, traditionally a Republican strong hold.
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              • #8
                Saw this today and thought I would share:

                Click image for larger version

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                • #9
                  I just want this 4 year nightmare to end!

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Bellyhungry View Post
                    Saw this today and thought I would share:

                    Click image for larger version

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                    Based on 2020 expected voter turnout estimates:

                    3 points would equate to ~4.1 million votes
                    4 point would equate to ~5.4 million votes

                    I expect the popular vote differential will increase over 2016. Is it enough to overcome the EC requirements? ...a Trump win will be closer than a Biden win.

                    TorontoGolfNuts.com/TGNFantasy

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                    • #11
                      Polls don’t take into account the closeted Trump voters. Republicans that are true conservatives have no choice to vote Trump but won’t admit it. If the Dems had a candidate that wasn’t in early stage dementia, it would certainly help matters. My prediction as it stands now is Trump will win .

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rgk5 View Post
                        Biden. The economy is still in the tank and the wacko conspiracy theories propagated by Trump are losing traction. I spoke to an American friend of mine from Dallas today. More and more Texans are turning to Biden, traditionally a Republican strong hold.
                        The Americans I talk to regularly are more concerned about the rioting than conspiracy theories. I think all the burning and rioting will be a big negative for Biden as those on the fence realize that Biden (before he gets carted away) then Kamala will be catering to the fire setters and rioters for 4 years. Time will tell.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Cyrus View Post
                          Polls don’t take into account the closeted Trump voters. Republicans that are true conservatives have no choice to vote Trump but won’t admit it. If the Dems had a candidate that wasn’t in early stage dementia, it would certainly help matters. My prediction as it stands now is Trump will win .
                          That same argument was made in 2016, and yet the national polls in 2016 were actually quite accurate. That would tend to contradict your argument about "closeted Trump voters".

                          I find it interesting that Trump supporters seem to find "early stage dementia" far more distasteful than full onset psychosis.

                          https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...ot-a-lot-right
                          TorontoGolfNuts.com/TGNFantasy

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                          • #14
                            This is the man who claims to be concerned about election integrity:

                            Trump appears to encourage people to vote twice, both in-person and by mail
                            TorontoGolfNuts.com/TGNFantasy

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by WWFS View Post

                              That same argument was made in 2016, and yet the national polls in 2016 were actually quite accurate. That would tend to contradict your argument about "closeted Trump voters".

                              I find it interesting that Trump supporters seem to find "early stage dementia" far more distasteful than full onset psychosis.

                              https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...ot-a-lot-right
                              I agree. Pollsters say that the secret Trump voters (those that wouldn't admit publically they would vote for Trump) were a very small number. By election day, most good pollsters had it as a tight race. Clinton did win the popular vote by a good margin. The ideosyncracies of the EC played out. Trump won 6 swing states by less than 2%. 88k votes was the difference.
                              How did that happen? there is not just one reason but a significant change in polls happened after Comey announced further email issues. That didn't help Clinton. She also didn't strategically campaign as well as Trump in the last few weeks. But I don't believe Biden will make those mistakes.
                              Senate committee will release a report about Biden in Ukraine in October. It will not have much credibility and should only reinforce Trump's base.
                              People didn't like Clinton, that made Trump's attacks effective. People like Joe Biden, try as they might they can't paint him as a bad person or politician. So it gets harder for Trump when the attacks don't stick because that's all he has. I expect the attacks will get more vicious and desperate but I'm not sure they will swing voters. People can see Biden is a decent man. In 60 days can Trump convince people he can handle any significant challenge? Maybe if a vaccine becomes available but it's unlikely. I suspect before the end of October Trump will announce multiple breakthroughs on Covid, without evidence. But in the end he has failed miserably. I just don't see a effective Trump strategy to beat Biden, Hillary was unpopular, that helped Trump. Biden doesn't have that baggage.
                              Today I have it Biden at 55% chance of winning.

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