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  • Originally posted by vermin40 View Post

    I thought this was supposed to be a landslide? Thought the left wing brain trust here determined that Trump will get zero new voters and that quite a few who voted for him in 2016 will switch teams then of course the huge wave of Dems who didn’t vote last time will definitely vote this time. Like how is this even close? Guess if you’re worrying about the green vote....maybe it’s not quite how you guys laid it out.
    I thought conventional wisdom was “it ain’t over ‘til its over.”

    Comment


    • Originally posted by pudubny View Post

      Yep. Many Latinos in Fla are Cubans. Traditionally Republican. So Fla is tough. But Biden has good leads in Penn, Mich and Wis. Tough path for Trump to win if he gets 0 for 3 on those.
      Yup. Biden has a lot more ways to win than Trump.

      Florida is not a guaranteed Republican win either. Things change:

      https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...lection-415526

      Miller noted that Florida Republicans “have always dominated” casting absentee ballots, but Trump’s rhetoric against voting by mail led to a sharp dropoff in the practice in his and other races. At the same time, Democrats encouraged voting by mail and Miller’s opponent, freshman Democratic commissioner Emily Bonilla, essentially had the race won before Election Day on Aug. 18.
      In The Bag

      Golf clubs


      Let them in.
      We can deal with the bad apples.
      Evil prevails when good people do nothing.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by vermin40 View Post

        I thought this was supposed to be a landslide? Thought the left wing brain trust here determined that Trump will get zero new voters and that quite a few who voted for him in 2016 will switch teams then of course the huge wave of Dems who didn’t vote last time will definitely vote this time. Like how is this even close? Guess if you’re worrying about the green vote....maybe it’s not quite how you guys laid it out.
        I have never said it will be a landslide. By most experts reckoning up to 8% of the US vote are considered swing voters. But really it's the 8% in swing states that matter. So even if Trump bankrupt the country and started WWIII he would still likely get 42-46% of the vote. That's the way it is in the partisan USA. Same for many hardcore dem voters.
        Currently with Biden leading outside the margin of error in Wis, Penn, Mich and Fla. I don't think it is close in electoral college. But in pure percentages. It is what it is. But lots to happen in next 50+ days.
        The Woodward revelations haven't hit polling yet. But further will not be reported accurately by right wing press. So the impact is smaller. New line is "everyone was trying to avoid panic". But their is no logical way to reconcile "I knew it would be bad" with Trump's public statements which were dismissive, not aimed at avoiding panic.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by pudubny View Post

          ...
          Currently with Biden leading outside the margin of error in Wis, Penn, Mich and Fla. I don't think it is close in electoral college...
          Interesting. I thought Florida had swung in Trump's favour by popular vote, but, looking at fivethirtyeight aggregated data, I see the race has only narrowed. Florida is now within the margin of error by their reckoning.

          On the plus side, Puttie is going to have a much harder time dropping a list minute election bomb on Biden the way he did with Clinton in 2016. That and the steady drip drip of embarrassing stuff coming out from all the people Trump has abused over the years makes it all the more difficult for the Republicans to manufacture scandal around Biden.

          There is no easy way to 'suddenly' shift the conversation around the candidates as the election nears.
          In The Bag

          Golf clubs


          Let them in.
          We can deal with the bad apples.
          Evil prevails when good people do nothing.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Marty Canuck View Post

            I thought conventional wisdom was “it ain’t over ‘til its over.”
            And in this election, when its over, it still won't be over.
            In The Bag

            Golf clubs


            Let them in.
            We can deal with the bad apples.
            Evil prevails when good people do nothing.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Fredk View Post
              Interesting. I thought Florida had swung in Trump's favour by popular vote, but, looking at fivethirtyeight aggregated data, I see the race has only narrowed. Florida is now within the margin of error by their reckoning.

              On the plus side, Puttie is going to have a much harder time dropping a list minute election bomb on Biden the way he did with Clinton in 2016. That and the steady drip drip of embarrassing stuff coming out from all the people Trump has abused over the years makes it all the more difficult for the Republicans to manufacture scandal around Biden.

              There is no easy way to 'suddenly' shift the conversation around the candidates as the election nears.
              The Senate committee investigating Biden and Ukraine issue will likely release it majority GOP opinion a week from the election. Mind you, it will not be like the Clinton email announcement by Comey. But they will try. This investigation took a major hit when Treasury announced one of the Ukrainians carrying water for this and working with Rudy is an active Russian intelligence asset. But that's the stuff we will see.
              i still see mail-in voting and poll attendance due to Covid will be wildcards we cannot reliably predict. Both situation usually favour Republicans. But this is not usual.

              Comment


              • the" it ain't over till the fat lady sings "has the ominous Valkyrie overtone.

                The post election smell of napalm is not what Amerika wants to wake up to.
                things change

                Comment


                • Originally posted by pudubny View Post

                  ...
                  i still see mail-in voting and poll attendance due to Covid will be wildcards we cannot reliably predict. Both situation usually favour Republicans. But this is not usual.
                  Yup. I think we are pretty much in agreement on how this may or may not play out. I did find the Politico article I quoted interesting in that the Republican, Miller, admitted that Trump's anti mail-in messaging is hurting the Republicans in Florida.
                  In The Bag

                  Golf clubs


                  Let them in.
                  We can deal with the bad apples.
                  Evil prevails when good people do nothing.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Fredk View Post
                    Yup. I think we are pretty much in agreement on how this may or may not play out. I did find the Politico article I quoted interesting in that the Republican, Miller, admitted that Trump's anti mail-in messaging is hurting the Republicans in Florida.
                    The Durham report will be another. Rumours that a top prosecutor resigned this week over pressure to speed up delivery of findings is odd. I think rushing the report will do Barr more harm than good but I doubt he cares. But again, will it really harm Biden? I doubt it. That's one of the problems Trump has with Biden. He's likeable and pretty scandal free. So most will see the Durham report as an attempt to invent scandal.
                    But I fully expect Barr will release whatever findings he can to help Trump according to Trump campaign wishes.

                    Comment


                    • A Canadian youtuber , interesting video, https://youtu.be/UYCyhUyGuMw

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Breakpar View Post
                        A Canadian youtuber , interesting video, https://youtu.be/UYCyhUyGuMw
                        Craft brewery in Lhasa? That's what I get.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by pudubny View Post

                          Craft brewery in Lhasa? That's what I get.
                          Maybe they brew a MAGA beer?
                          In The Bag

                          Golf clubs


                          Let them in.
                          We can deal with the bad apples.
                          Evil prevails when good people do nothing.

                          Comment


                          • Trump loves being first. Here’s a first he won’t like. This is the first time in the 175 year history of the Scientific American that they’ve endorsed a Presidential candidate ... and it’s not Donald. They’ve had more than enough of the moron.

                            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-to-back-biden
                            Last edited by mpare; Sep 16, 2020, 07:04 AM.
                            This isn't a dress rehearsal. Enjoy yourself. There's no do-over.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Breakpar View Post
                              A Canadian youtuber , interesting video, https://youtu.be/UYCyhUyGuMw
                              Were we posting in the wrong thread by mistake (been there, done that!)? Or do they eventually talk about the election later in the 80 minute video?

                              Comment


                              • I suspect that The Donald won't be attending any more 'open' town hall meetings.

                                It seems there are people there who won't take "no" for an answer and who tell him to not interrupt.

                                https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...rs-ctn-vpx.cnn
                                Sage of the GTA...

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