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Your Best Long/Short Term Stock Play

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  • Your Best Long/Short Term Stock Play

    The "Stock Market Down" thread and one of my recent successes in the stock market lead me to this question: What has been your best long or short term stock trade?

    While I have had winners and losers, my best stock market play happened this year (today) upon selling the shares of The Trade Desk Inc (TTD; NASDAQ) that I held. I had been watching TTD for a while, and when the markets tanked in March I bought in. The Trade Desk is an online digital ad-buyer/curator that is used by most (all?) of the major social media giants and other online retailers, media, etc. When COVID-19 hit, and it became apparent that online activity was going to increase markedly from people being off work, off school, or working/schooling online it seemed like a no-brainer that a company responsible for digital ad buying and curating would be a surefire winner. I went 'all-in' in March @ $150/share and sold today @ $900/share . Like any stock, it could go higher, but the trajectory got a bit too vertical for my comfort level so I sold at 640%.

    I think individual stock plays are going to be out of the picture for me for a while - it's too stressful constantly checking the markets and trying to analyze which peak is going to be the top of the mountain, I think I will hold onto the profits and put the majority in an RESP once our little one arrives.

    The biggest question for the more immediate future is - what set of golf clubs should I treat myself to for next season?
    Last edited by SeanAvery2point0; Dec 1, 2020, 12:01 AM.

  • #2
    Nano Dimension, Plantir, Square, all long term will do ok. Look into blockchain ( non commerce) fintech, ai. Just follow Ark for a few years and you'll do fine. EV but pick your spots. Diversify into China, HK.

    A couple of little ones that will do ok on TSX are Victory Square Tech and Greenlane.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Cyrus View Post
      Nano Dimension, Plantir, Square, all long term will do ok. Look into blockchain ( non commerce) fintech, ai. Just follow Ark for a few years and you'll do fine. EV but pick your spots. Diversify into China, HK.

      A couple of little ones that will do ok on TSX are Victory Square Tech and Greenlane.
      Bought Nano Dimension last week and Moderna at $120 US . . . it went passed the $150 US today . . .

      My best one has been Wesdome . . . had it for 2 years now. Today had a good jump . . .

      Well done SA2.0 . . . very, very nice . . .
      If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Cyrus View Post
        Nano Dimension, Plantir, Square, all long term will do ok. Look into blockchain ( non commerce) fintech, ai. Just follow Ark for a few years and you'll do fine. EV but pick your spots. Diversify into China, HK.

        A couple of little ones that will do ok on TSX are Victory Square Tech and Greenlane.
        If my Ark, you mean the digital currency/blockchain tech - I have been 'staking' Ark for over a year now.

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        • #5
          Best long term play - I bought iStar Financial (STAR) back in 2008/9 at ~$1US a share. The stock was down from its pre-financial crisis high of over $50. I bought 3,000 shares with some remnant funds I had in the US trading account. I sold 1,000 shares when it hit $3 about a year later to take my original funds off the table and let the other 2,000 shares ride. Still have them and the stock is $14.10 as of today and now pays a 3% dividend to boot. Pure speculative play that is now a decent stock to hold too. I rolled the dice and it worked out, but it was mainly luck.

          Just some advice from a guy that has been in the markets for more than 35+ years now. There is a big difference between speculation and investing. Back in the late 90's when I was younger and just starting to put money into the stock market, the market was so hot during the dot.com bubble that you just had throw money at anything and it went up. I gambled $20k on an IPO (hot tip from a friend) and doubled my money in short order. I was feeling pretty good about myself and this 'investing' stuff. Decided to put my profits in another 'hot tip/sure thing'. Long story short, it ended up being a pump and dump scheme and lost all my profits from the previous transaction. The dot.com bubble burst soon after and all the companies I was thinking of for my next few trades tanked and many disappeared altogether. I would have likely lost a good chunk of what I had saved had the bubble not burst when it did. I see a lot of that kind of speculation in today's markets and valuations have deviated severely from historical norms. I caution anyone that now is not the time to be taking significant risks unless its with funds that you can afford to lose.

          So I'm not trying to burst your bubble. I'm just cautioning you to not confuse luck and fortuitous timing with skill. Don't get cocky like I did and start considering higher levels of risk because 'I'm pretty good at this'. Speculation is more luck than anything. You win some, you lose some, but my experience is that most newbies/speculators lose more than they win. Investing takes skill and many years of experience and, even then, some can't get returns better than just passive ETFs. Enjoy your fortuitous windfall and treat yourself for sure, but understand there is no path to quick riches this way. If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it.

          PS You also may want to ask people for their biggest losses to contrast their biggest wins. Not many want to brag or even acknowledge those. Mine was six figures.
          Last edited by luv2kruz; Dec 1, 2020, 01:56 AM.
          Proud member of the Prune Juice Army.

          Comment


          • #6
            luv2kruz as mentioned, I will be taking a holiday from investing in individual assets traded on the major exchanges... for three reasons; my blood pressure can't take it, I don't have the time to dedicate to research, and with a little one on the way I probably shouldn't take the risk of investing in individual public corporations. I know a few people (coworkers) who missed out on early retirement because they got greedy in the markets when they should have been cautious to know not to overplay my hand. Heck this investment was meant to be for the long term, I contemplated selling at $300 (100%) but decided to stick to the 'long term' plan, but at 640% I just couldn't convince myself that the potential benefit from holding the position any longer was worth the risk. For all I care, it could go to $2000/share and I won't be upset. If you told me in March I was going to make 640% in 8 months I would have laughed in your face.

            likely going to treat myself to a fitting and/or some combination of new clubs - most likely a driver (I'm still playing the R9!) and will hold the rest of my profits in a seperate account to be invested in an RESP, ETF, or mutual fund at a later date.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by luv2kruz View Post
              PS You also may want to ask people for their biggest losses to contrast their biggest wins. Not many want to brag or even acknowledge those. Mine was six figures.
              +1 Of the few friends/family/co-workers that I know who routinely gamble on stocks, they all seem to do nothing but WIN!!! If a stock crashes its always "oh, I sold just in time"

              I agree, I'd much rather hear the carnage, along with the wins. Personally, I am a wimp for gambling, but do find it interesting. I had some ideas to invest in March but never thought the markets would do what they have (even though our financial advisor suggested they would )

              My play was going to be Tesla at around 370$ but our TFSA account took 3 weeks to open and the stock had rebounded to over 500$ so I passed. Now at ~3000$...............ouch!!!!
              Over thinking, over analyzing separates the body from the mind.

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              • #8
                For me, it was Bio Stocks. Still waiting on the final (?) chapter.

                July 1st, Canada Day. Only US market open. Day Trade VXRT. Made $6,000. Kept 3,000 shares @$8.00. It went up and down. Later, with rumours etc, it went up to $16. Sold 1,000. Made a total of $14,000. The remaining 2,000 went down to as low as $5.00.
                Kept it because it is still trying to make a vaccine. Key is it will be in a pill form. Game changer if it is successful. It is now slowly creeping up. Lastest close was $8.

                Another one. INO. Bought at 1,000 @$16 when the US Defence Dept. gave them $80 million. Went up to $32 in a couple of weeks. Short sellers took over and it started to dip. Didn't get out. FDA put a stop to their process. Stock went down to $10. FDA okay the process now. Last look $12.

                Still keeping these 2. Play with money you can afford to lose. This money was budgeted for me to travel to play golf etc in Asia. With Corvid, since all trips were cancelled, I had to do something silly and fun. This was what I chose to do.

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                • #9
                  Best long term play: bought Apple around year 2000 and still have it, but much more after multiple splits.
                  Worst plays: RIM and Nortel.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by xrox View Post
                    +1 Of the few friends/family/co-workers that I know who routinely gamble on stocks, they all seem to do nothing but WIN!!! If a stock crashes its always "oh, I sold just in time"

                    I agree, I'd much rather hear the carnage, along with the wins. Personally, I am a wimp for gambling, but do find it interesting. I had some ideas to invest in March but never thought the markets would do what they have (even though our financial advisor suggested they would )

                    My play was going to be Tesla at around 370$ but our TFSA account took 3 weeks to open and the stock had rebounded to over 500$ so I passed. Now at ~3000$...............ouch!!!!
                    Couldn’t agree more. Very few want to advertise their trades at the time they put them on so that they might be objectively valued - lots of “Oh, I bought xyz stock at $Y”... You even see the “advertise your winners bias” on here.

                    In general, if anyone thinks they have some analytical insight into a large cap stock, they should try to spend some time with an active hedge fund to see the depth, breadth and quantity of research they are competing with for insight. Or try to call the investor relations contact at a company you are interested in and see if he/she even returns your call. Then realize that the same contact person (if not the ceo) will return the call of a large shareholder within an hour. The game is so tilted against individual investors that it is exceedingly difficult to overcome the structural obstacles.

                    My view has become cynical with time, but buying individual stocks is more akin to gambling than investing - if you treat it accordingly it can be a source of amusement in these times.

                    Oh and congrats to SA 2.0 for a great trade in the first post. I have a portfolio littered with zero’s - (can’t figure out how to get rid of them) and the occasional win (1 Beacon a hall share seems to be the best of the lot - but it’s still early). I tend to stick to etf’s, closed end funds or funds run by institutions for my (non gambling) investment objectives. I think Clublink is a buy and Tesla is a short right now if you want to objectively evaluate my selections moving forward.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by bcampb00 View Post



                      In general, if anyone thinks they have some analytical insight into a large cap stock, they should try to spend some time with an active hedge fund to see the depth, breadth and quantity of research they are competing with for insight. Or try to call the investor relations contact at a company you are interested in and see if he/she even returns your call. Then realize that the same contact person (if not the ceo) will return the call of a large shareholder within an hour. The game is so tilted against individual investors that it is exceedingly difficult to overcome the structural obstacles.

                      My view has become cynical with time, but buying individual stocks is more akin to gambling than investing - if you treat it accordingly it can be a source of amusement in these times.
                      Bolded section. It is gambling. Yes, a source of amusement and entertainment. I don't do any in depth analysis of any of these type of stocks when I decide to take a flyer on them. Just a hunch.

                      Once a day I play online slots. Put $200 and play. For this year, so far I am down $1,000. When I hit a $3,000 jackpot, the RUSH I get is something that I cannot really describe. One need to be very disciplined to do this. I never put more then $200 each time. I never chase a losing day.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by trunckslammer1 View Post

                        Bolded section. It is gambling. Yes, a source of amusement and entertainment. I don't do any in depth analysis of any of these type of stocks when I decide to take a flyer on them. Just a hunch.

                        Once a day I play online slots. Put $200 and play. For this year, so far I am down $1,000. When I hit a $3,000 jackpot, the RUSH I get is something that I cannot really describe. One need to be very disciplined to do this. I never put more then $200 each time. I never chase a losing day.
                        Nothing wrong with gambling - as long as players realize that with repeated play, the house (almost) always wins.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Speaking of gambling, I am considering buying one of these 2. PENN or Draftkings (DKNG). Any thoughts?

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bcampb00 View Post

                            Nothing wrong with gambling - as long as players realize that with repeated play, the house (almost) always wins.
                            Yes. I am always prepared to lose that money every time I play. I am paying for the excitement. Any wins is just a bonus. With all the shutdowns etc, I just wanted to do something - was prepared to lose the $200 every day.

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                            • #15
                              I am not a supporter of long-term stock plays for capital appreciation. That is not to say they can't work, they can and do. What was the line.......While it insults my sensibilities ...I agree with bcamp00. The game can be difficult and not favour the small time investor. A basket of low beta , dividend paying , blue chip stocks might be the exception.

                              Personally, I am not a buy and hold guy although have had a few royalty trusts and dividend payers in in my TFSA. Otherwise , my approach is to swing trade ups and downs and will also utilize some basic options strategies.

                              As for biggest gainer completely lucked out and did big with Bre-X, my biggest loser was on an investment advisor recommendation to buy Nortel at $50...bought 100 shares and sold it at $10.

                              preservation of capital has been the goal for the past 2+ decades since
                              "Don't cry because it's over, Smile because it happened "

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