The Ukraine / Russia standoff - How bad is this going to get?

[duffer_mcmulligan]

Putin has stated multiple times that believes that the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy in modern history.

And his goal is to redress that disaster/defeat.

Putin has also learned to use the west's/capitalism's most valuable asset, capital (money).
By amassing a fortune and enriching his friends/acolytes/family/faithful he has allowed them to influence western opinion/opinion makers and wedge themselves into western business and 'high society'.

Agree with this. However, Ukraine was recognized as an independent nation by all nations of the world in 1994, including Russia.

most Russian oligarchs now are viewed as pariahs by the “societies” of the world. In many cases, the economic elite continued to ostracize Russian ‘elites” recognizing the individuals for what they were as they came to power. Many were frustrated that they couldn’t buy their way into British “society” .

[Arthur Dailey]

Agree with this. However, Ukraine was recognized as an independent nation by all nations of the world in 1994, including Russia.

most Russian oligarchs now are viewed as pariahs by the “societies” of the world. In many cases, the economic elite continued to ostracize Russian ‘elites” recognizing the individuals for what they were as they came to power. Many were frustrated that they couldn’t buy their way into British “society” .

Russia recognized Ukraine in 1994 in return for Ukraine denuclearizing.

At the time Ukraine had the 3rd most nuclear weapons of any nation on the planet. Left over from the Soviet Union/CIS.

[Fredk]

Agree with this. However, Ukraine was recognized as an independent nation by all nations of the world in 1994, including Russia.

most Russian oligarchs now are viewed as pariahs by the “societies” of the world. In many cases, the economic elite continued to ostracize Russian ‘elites” recognizing the individuals for what they were as they came to power. Many were frustrated that they couldn’t buy their way into British “society” .

Which is why their kids are still flitting about cities such as London. Money talks ...

[bl8d]

Ukraine never had any functional ICBM silos. Those were intended draw away and act as a diversionary target for American ICBM.
Ukraine was in fact a "fake nuclear power" . Its main function was to hide the actual size of Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Those warheads were later shipped back to Russia, at NATOs expense.



Weaponizing Ukraine and then de-weaponizing them so that Russia could meet the quota of the treaty was the biggest con perpetrated on NATO.
Nuclear Disarmament Ukraine (nti.org)

[Arthur Dailey]

Which is why their kids are still flitting about cities such as London. Money talks ...

And or living in mansions on the Bridal Path.

[Arthur Dailey]

Ukraine never had any functional ICBM silos. Those were intended draw away and act as a diversionary target for American ICBM.
Ukraine was in fact a "fake nuclear power" . Its main function was to hide the actual size of Russia's nuclear arsenal.
Those warheads were later shipped back to Russia, at NATOs expense.



Weaponizing Ukraine and then de-weaponizing them so that Russia could meet the quota of the treaty was the biggest con perpetrated on NATO.
Nuclear Disarmament Ukraine (nti.org)

https://nuke.fas.org/guide/ukraine/

Ukraine inherited about 30 percent of the Soviet military industry, which included between 50 and 60 percent of all Ukrainian enterprises, employing 40 percent of its working population. Ukraine was, and remains, the leader in missile-related technology, especially guidance systems, navigation electronics for combat vessels and submarines, and radar for military jets

There were 176 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers with some 1,240 warheads on Ukrainian territory. This force consisted of 130 SS-19s, each capable of delivering six nuclear weapons, and 46 SS-24s, each armed with ten nuclear weapons. An additional 14 SS-24 missiles were present in Ukraine, but not operationally deployed with warheads. Several dozen bombers with strategic nuclear capabilities were armed with some 600 air-launched missiles, along with gravity bombs. In addition, as many as 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons rounded out an arsenal totaling approximately 5,000 strategic and tactical weapons.

Ukraine initially announced its intention to obtain operational control over the strategic nuclear weapons deployed in its territory. Responding to these intentions, Russian military officials responded that attempts to interfere with, or to damage the command and control systems of, Russian strategic troops located abroad would constitute a direct military threat to the Russian Federation.

The trilateral agreement signed in Moscow on January 14, 1994 by the United States, Russia, and Ukraine was seen as a significant Western success in disarming Ukraine of nuclear weapons. Under the agreement, the Russian Federation sent 100 tons of fuel to Ukraine for its nuclear power plants. The United States agreed to pay $60 million to the Russian Federation in support of that process. For its part, Ukraine agreed to transfer 200 nuclear warheads over a 10-month period. Ukraine joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear weapon state in 1994. Ukraine signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) on February 23, 2001. With Ukraine’s signing of the CTBT, Eastern Europe became the first of the Treaty’s six geographical regions to fully meet the Treaty’s conditions to into effect.

As of May 1994, 120 SS-19 Stiletto and 60 SS-24 Scalpel ICBMs had been shipped out of Ukraine for reprocessing in Russia.

Ukraine announced in June 1996 that all warheads had been removed from the country. A problem arose in the removal of SS-19s, which use large amounts of a toxic substance known as heptyl. The United States sent storage tanks to hold 2,200 metric tons of the substance. After the SS-19 missiles were removed from combat duty, 19 were re-used in Russia.

In May 1997 Ukraine agreed to destroy its SS-24 missiles, in addition to SS-19 missiles, silos and launch sites, utilizing $47 million provided through the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. Withdrawal from combat duty of the SS-24 (RS-22) missiles started on July 1, 1998. Complete liquidation of ICBMs in Ukraine is planned to be completed by January 4, 2001. In September 1998 a US Department of Defense delegation, headed by Assistant Secretary of Defense Edward Warner, took part in the decommissioning of a SS-24 silo launcher in Pervomaisk, the Nikolayev region, Ukraine. The Pervomaisk base comprises 46 silos with SS-24 solid-fuel ICBMs. Decommissioning of a single silo launcher was estimated to cost about US $1 million, and the US Government allocated a total of US $399.2 million.

[bl8d]

AD you are basically confirming what I said, but in much more detail. The Russians never (en)trusted Ukraine with a fully operational nuclear command.

quote from above

"Ukraine initially announced its intention to obtain operational control over the strategic nuclear weapons deployed in its territory. Responding to these intentions, Russian military officials responded that attempts to interfere with, or to damage the command and control systems of, Russian strategic troops located abroad would constitute a direct military threat to the Russian Federation."

The Russians always had/ held/ the key to the" car "and kept the tank empty. They extorted the US to give them the funds to move the "car" off the road.


I can assure you the US money that was set aside for decommissioning the "warheads " was siphoned off by Ukraine's puppet president and his corrupt government of that day.

[Arthur Dailey]

AD you are basically confirming what I said, but in much more detail. The Russians never (en)trusted Ukraine with a fully operational nuclear command.

quote from above

"Ukraine initially announced its intention to obtain operational control over the strategic nuclear weapons deployed in its territory. Responding to these intentions, Russian military officials responded that attempts to interfere with, or to damage the command and control systems of, Russian strategic troops located abroad would constitute a direct military threat to the Russian Federation."

The Russians always had/ held/ the key to the" car "and kept the tank empty. They extorted the US to give them the funds to move the "car" off the road.


I can assure you the US money that was set aside for decommissioning the "warheads " was siphoned off by Ukraine's puppet president and his corrupt government of that day.

As per the link, a great amount of that money also went directly to Bechtel.

[bl8d]

wonder how they got that contract.
Bechtel is tainted. It earned a reputation for corrupt business practice.
.https://www.peoplesworld.org/article...0to%20withdraw.

[Fredk]

A year and a bit on, Russia is not winning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmO1kfCr_II

Listening to interviews with various Russians now living outside Russia, it strikes me that its current citizenry are like an abused person who has lost the will to do anything about their situation. Quite depressing.

[Bellyhungry]

A Russian pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky got blown to pieces likely by pro-Ukranian actor in St. Petersburg.

The whole thing is like a spy movie and is practically being recorded on video. You can see the person leaving the bomb being asked to join him and she reached out in the motion of "Oh no, don't open it yet'' just before the blast: https://twitter.com/txanba/status/1643024533979295744

[Arthur Dailey]

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declares that they have occupied Bakhmut.

One hopes that Ukraine's efforts to defend the city have not drained its military or its resolve.

[Fredk]

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declares that they have occupied Bakhmut.

One hopes that Ukraine's efforts to defend the city have not drained its military or its resolve.

I doubt it has drained their resolve. It is impossible to say how fast the Ukraine is burning through resources.

The Russian spring offensive has fizzled with not much progress. There have been no real advances in Bakhmut in the last four days.

The question now is what the Ukraine has in the tank for an offensive. Hopefully there are things going on in the background that the US and Nato are not making public.

[Arthur Dailey]

Antiwar officer from Putin’s secretive elite security team defects
Erika Kinetz – The Associated Pres – April 5, 2023
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-antiwar-officer-from-putins-secretive-elite-security-team-defects/

Gleb Karakulov was an officer in President Vladimir Putin’s secretive elite personal security service.

Even last year, Putin continued to insist on strict anti-COVID-19 measures, and FSO employees took shifts in two-week quarantine so there would always be a pool of people cleared to travel with Putin on the train, he said.

The AP – March 24, 2023

Discrediting the Russian armed forces became a crime under a new law adopted after Russia sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. Kremlin critics have been regularly charged under the law.

[bl8d]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-antiwar-officer-from-putins-secretive-elite-security-team-defects/

Putin ,like all leaders, has his paranoia.
To avoid assassination by drone,he does communicate nor carry a cell phone that a drone can home in on.
His personal train has the typical paint job of a normal train to avoid even casual tracking by locals.
His office furniture and wall decorations are identical in all locations, so his televised broadcast location remain unknown for their duration.
Clever sod he is.

Turkey seems to be the escape route for many Russ. Wonder how it effects Putin's relations with Erdogan.