A round in the rain?

[Greywolf]

Re: A round in the rain?

I am playing tomorrow, the weather will be fine, weather guys are more often wrong than right.

[haribo]

Re: A round in the rain?

I am playing tomorrow, the weather will be fine, weather guys are more often wrong than right.

Yeah, very true. Weather guys are the only one's who can be wrong 90% of all time and still won't lose their jobs.

[Special_K]

Re: A round in the rain?

Yes please do. I've only heard good things about Bigwin Island! Enjoy it Will.

Playing Bigwin Island tomorrow rain, hail, sleet, snow, shine ... who cares. Get out of my way, I'm going golfin baby.

6th ranked course in the country + 3 great golf buds + Muskoka = awesome trip.

Probably not even sleep much tonight jus thinkin about this round.

Wish me luck boys .. Muskoka gets a lot more rain than we do here in south western On.

I'll obviously review the course when I get home.

[Nocturnal]

Re: A round in the rain?

Yeah, very true. Weather guys are the only one's who can be wrong 90% of all time and still won't lose their jobs.

As a forecaster I'll disagree with that statement. We are right most of the time 85-90% on Day 1 and 2 forecasts, somewhat lower for day 3 4 and 5 of the forecast. Our motto is -- No one forgets when we're wrong and no one remembers when we're right.

It's all a matter of perception, for example I'm looking at our radar now and there's a narrow line (maybe 10 km wide) of showers extending from Chatham to almost Hamilton, folks along that line think we were wrong forecasting only 60% chance of shower in the afternoon, here in Toronto folks think we're wrong because there has only been the odd sprinkle.

The exact location of showers are very hard to predict when they're created by daytime heating, (and very simple to predict when they're created by a cold or warm front).

It's like knowing a pot on the stove is going to boil (ie the conditions are ripe in certain areas) and trying to predict exactly where the first bubble will appear. We can define the area (the size of the pot) and the probabilty you'll get wet somewhere in that pot, but not the exact location of each bubble.

Must be nice to have a job where you're always right

[Grass Roots Tour]

Re: A round in the rain?

Yeah, very true. Weather guys are the only one's who can be wrong 90% of all time and still won't lose their jobs.

Y'all opened a can o worms there, didn't ya?

[Greywolf]

Re: A round in the rain?

Y'all opened a can o worms there, didn't ya?

I never understood the point of the long range forecast since it changes almost daily, why not stick with a 2 day forecast, the chances of getting that right would be much better. I was watching the Weather Network last weekend, the forecast for tomorrow changed 4 times within the space of 24 hours.

[Nocturnal]

Re: A round in the rain?

I never understood the point of the long range forecast since it changes almost daily, why not stick with a 2 day forecast, the chances of getting that right would be much better. I was watching the Weather Network last weekend, the forecast for tomorrow changed 4 times within the space of 24 hours.

I won't comment on the Weather Network forecasts because I don't know how often they update their forecasts.

We (Environment Canada) do a 5 day extended forecast because it's possible to do so with decent results, however if you're basing your business on the 5th day of an extended forecast period you're in deep doo doo. It's basically an outlook, and while the 3rd day is correct 70-75% of the time, the 5th day is down into the 50-60% area. Treat the extended (days 4 and 5) forecast as a 'weather trend' pointing to warmer/wetter colder/drier etc.

Computer models can only analyse x amount of data in a time frame that makes the product useful, ie computer models of the atmosphere are extremely complex and require huge processing resources that take time. It's always a trade off as to how much 'depth' the models can look at and still produce a result in time to be used before they're out of date. As processing power has increased it's allowed the day 1 and 2 forecasts to become much more accurate over the past 15 years.

However until we somehow gain the ability or processing power to track and forecast the motion of every molecule in the atmosphere there will be no perfect forecast.

[Greywolf]

Re: A round in the rain?

I won't comment on the Weather Network forecasts because I don't know how often they update their forecasts.

We (Environment Canada) do a 5 day extended forecast because it's possible to do so with decent results, however if you're basing your business on the 5th day of an extended forecast period you're in deep doo doo. It's basically an outlook, and while the 3rd day is correct 70-75% of the time, the 5th day is down into the 50-60% area. Treat the extended (days 4 and 5) forecast as a 'weather trend' pointing to warmer/wetter colder/drier etc.

Computer models can only analyse x amount of data in a time frame that makes the product useful, ie computer models of the atmosphere are extremely complex and require huge processing resources that take time. It's always a trade off as to how much 'depth' the models can look at and still produce a result in time to be used before they're out of date. As processing power has increased it's allowed the day 1 and 2 forecasts to become much more accurate over the past 15 years.

However until we somehow gain the ability or processing power to track and forecast the motion of every molecule in the atmosphere there will be no perfect forecast.

Understood, not picking on you in particular, you know that many people like to take shots at the "weatherman" especially when the forecast does not meet expectations.

[Nocturnal]

Re: A round in the rain?

Understood, not picking on you in particular, you know that many people like to take shots at the "weatherman" especially when the forecast does not meet expectations.

That's because everyone's expectations are different weatherwise. As a golfer you're more concerned about heavy showers and thunderstorms. A farmer wants more sun or more rain depending on how wet his land currently is. If we forecast a 60% chance of showers and you see none as a golfer or a farmer with wet fields you're happy and the forecast was good. If the farmer with dry fields doesn't see any rain from a 60% forecast he's unhappy and it was a terrible forecast. Like I said earlier people only notice the forecast when we're perceived as wrong (from their perspective) (the farmer or gardener might be happy!).

[openflows]

Re: A round in the rain?

The only type of weather that would stop me from playing is lightning. I have played in almost all other types of possible weather. Snow, hale, rain, sleet, fog, freezing rain, gale winds, torrential down pours, and of course sun. Sometimes of course it's not up to me as the course may close cause of frost or other factors that may hurt the greens if they are played on. Otherwise I'm out there, regardless.

Mind you, I believe in gear. As a former 365/24/7 cyclist, who would ride in any conditions (especially blizzards), I learned long ago that it all comes down to your gear. If you're gear is stury enough, you can do anything. Props go to Mountain Equipment Co-op, Tilley Endurables, and Foot Joy / Dry Joy. Investing in the proper gear is really a worthwhile expenditure if a golf nut you are.

[hammer]

Re: A round in the rain?

I played today and I have a tournament tomorrow. I don't care how much it rains, once your soaked your not going to get any more wet. I don't even have an umbrella or rain jacket, just a hat to keep rain of my glasses. It poured for about half an hour then it was perfect the rest of the day. As long as there is no lightning or its super cold too I don't care. I'm not going to look forward to playing all week then not go cause its raining. Some of the best rounds I have ever played were in the rain because you have no choice but to swing in contol. I don't remember every round I play but I bet I have a funny story or a memerable moment about every time I played in the pouring down rain.

[Golftool]

Re: A round in the rain?

Played on Saturday & only felt a sprinkle for a few minutes all round - what a round!

The greens were in excellent shape - dont think i saw a ball mark all round - but they were like putting on my kitchen counter top!!!!!

Lets just say that on a par 3 i was on in 1 with a fifteen footer for birdie and i took a six!!!! Every hole was cut into a slope and they must have been running a 10 or 11 on the stint!!! - Just not fair at all - i dont think even the PGA gets holes cut where these were!! If you have tiered greens put the hole on TOP of one of the tiers - cut it way back or way up front - not on the SIDE of a SLOPE for crying out loud - especially when they are cut so short and running so fast! Give us normal guys a chance to enjoy our round!

[Nocturnal]

Re: A round in the rain?

I'll go out on a limb here and forecast that you should plan on wearing shorts this coming weekend, for day 6 and 7 of the forecast, Jun 4 and 5th it looks like near 30 degrees and humid. Plan on extra liquid refreshment

[Grass Roots Tour]

Re: A round in the rain?

Bigwin was awesome and weather was great too. No rain to speak of.

Going to Heron Point tomorrow. Thunderstorms forcast for the afternoon when I'll be playing. Anyone know a sundance?

I'll review Heron Point tomorrow night. Stay tuned.

[Nocturnal]

Re: A round in the rain?

I'll go out on a limb here and forecast that you should plan on wearing shorts this coming weekend, for day 6 and 7 of the forecast, Jun 4 and 5th it looks like near 30 degrees and humid. Plan on extra liquid refreshment

Okay .. okay the warm air arrived 18 hours later than I forecast, dang I suck!