Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

I will put my faith in the Jays that they've done their scouting on him, and come to the conclusion it's not a fluke that he's had 3 really good years in a row since developing a knuckleball. He's not a traditional knuckleballer either, but I'm sure I don't need to tell you that.

Well he's had 1 REALLY good year. When you look at his WAR in 2010-11 it's quite similar to Shawn Marcum. Who would they pay less for this week all things considered? And in making a play for Marcum they keep 2 highly rated prospects....even if it's just for future trade assets.

The old sell high buy low adage haunts me on this deal.

[P25]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Well he's had 1 REALLY good year. When you look at his WAR in 2010-11 it's quite similar to Shawn Marcum. Who would they pay less for this week all things considered? And in making a play for Marcum they keep 2 highly rated prospects....even if it's just for future trade assets.

The old sell high buy low adage haunts me on this deal.

We'll agree to disagree. We don't need another 2nd or 3rd starter, which is what Marcum is and always will be at his best if on a contender. We need a bonafide top of the rotation guy. That is what Dickey is. JJ and Morrow have that potential but Dickey is there already.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

I think has the potential to be a really good catcher.

He's got decent numbers and from my "inside source", he's well liked in the clubhouse and i think he adds a lot to the team. Also, he doesn't cost a lot in payroll and he's young.

No, he does not. He has absolutely brutal numbers. He put up a .275 OBP last year. .282 the year before. That's just horrendous. He throws a few homers on the board, but not enough to make up for his overall weakness on offence. And it's not like his outs are productive outs, either.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Well he's had 1 REALLY good year. When you look at his WAR in 2010-11 it's quite similar to Shawn Marcum. Who would they pay less for this week all things considered? And in making a play for Marcum they keep 2 highly rated prospects....even if it's just for future trade assets.

The old sell high buy low adage haunts me on this deal.

WAR is an overrated and overused stat, and in my opinion not terribly relevant in looking at Dickey and his impact on the Jays.

While there's no doubt this year was far better than either of the previous two, those were still outstanding seasons by any credible measure, and if Dickey were to merely reproduce the WORST of those seasons, he'd be a hell of a pickup. His impact on this rotation is tremendous. Keep in mind, of course, that Dickey's WAR has improved in part because his innings-pitched have increased, and his innings-pitched have increased because the Mets put more faith in him. It's unlikely his innings-pitched will decrease with the Jays.

If he gets extended, and reproduces something similar to the past three seasons during his three seasons with the Jays -- but with what will undoubtedly be more innings pitched -- he might be worth giving up one top-flight prospect and one single-A prospect whose value has been overstated by irate fans.

Marcum would indeed have been a good pickup, but would have added to this year's payroll when it appears we might not have payroll flexibility. Because of the inclusion of Buck in this deal, we actually SAVE $3 million this year by making this trade. And if we're talking WAR, Marcum's has been in a virtual freefall due to both performance overall and his declining innings-pitched thanks to injury. (Down to 1.3 this year.) Of the two pitchers, Marcum is far more likely to spend time on the DL. It's tough to look at these two pitchers and think Dickey won't be better than Marcum for at least a year or two, and I suspect the knuckleballer has four or five quality years in him, even if the last year or two are merely "good."

I'm still not sold on the deal, but I've warmed up to it with the realization that this is as close to a "sure thing" for the postseason as this team is going to get while playing in the AL East. My concern is that we need to win, and win now, and pack the RC all season long for multiple seasons so that we can afford to maintain or increase payroll and keep the team competitive while we restock the farm system, which has gone from one of the best to middle-of the pack. If this gamble doesn't work, the franchise is screwed.

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Keep in mind, of course, that Dickey's WAR has improved in part because his innings-pitched have increased, and his innings-pitched have increased because the Mets put more faith in him. It's unlikely his innings-pitched will decrease with the Jays.

Keep in mind his first year with the Mets (2010) his innings were less because he was signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training and started the year in AAA.

Also keep in mind if the numbers they are talking about for extension ($15 mil/season) are accurate, his 2014 salary (first of the extension) will pay him more than all his previous 12 seasons in the majors combined.

Chasing stats is a dangerous proposition.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Keep in mind his first year with the Mets (2010) his innings were less because he was signed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training and started the year in AAA.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. You brought up WAR. Dickey's innings-pitched were lower and therefore his WAR was lower than it otherwise would have been. The fact that he started the year at AAA merely supports the contention that his WAR was negatively affected for reasons that had nothing to do with performance or injury. Conversely, Marcum's WAR was impacted both by performance AND by fewer innings pitched, with those innings pitched being a result of injury, which is a more significant factor than a team starting a guy in AAA.

Also keep in mind if the numbers they are talking about for extension ($15 mil/season) are accurate, his 2014 salary (first of the extension) will pay him more than all his previous 12 seasons in the majors combined.

I was talking about one year only because the Jays have options for shedding a big salary or two next year should they see fit to do so, but also because the Jays could be in a position to increase payroll should attendance and TV ratings skyrocket ... which is a strong possibility.

Chasing stats is a dangerous proposition.

I'm not "chasing" stats, I'm only pointing out the clear flaws in using WAR to evaluate Dickey vs. Marcum. I understand that you might want your point to go unchallenged, but it was a flawed point.

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

What I was implying is that the Jays are ready to sell the farm and pay top dollar in an extension for a 38 year old knuckleballer who was a major league journeyman at best 3 seasons ago.

Unprecedented and no doubt part of the reason the Mets are selling instead of re-upping themselves.

And I didn't say you are chasing stats, I'm afraid that's what the Jays are doing.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

What I was implying is that the Jays are ready to sell the farm and pay top dollar in an extension for a 38 year old knuckleballer who was a major league journeyman at best 3 seasons ago.

Three seasons are significant. Three seasons are enough to establish that there is no "fluke" involved. This is why people still like three-year splits. And we know why his numbers changed three years ago; he only started working on a knuckleball two or three years before that, and only became consistent with it in 2010. There's every reason to put more stock in the past three seasons than anything that came before, and little reason at all to even refer to his stats prior to that. And his age is not a factor, when you consider that quality knuckleballers tend to maintain themselves into their early and even mid 40s.

Unprecedented and no doubt part of the reason the Mets are selling instead of re-upping themselves.

The Mets are selling because they're nowhere near contention. The Jays are buying because they're legitimately positioned to make a run at a championship. The two teams are perfectly positioned to make a star-for-prospect deal; the only question is whether the Jays have parted with too many prospects over the past several months.

And I didn't say you are chasing stats, I'm afraid that's what the Jays are doing.

Oh, well then, they're not chasing stats either. They're trading for a quality pitcher who is likely to continue to be a quality pitcher for the foreseeable future.

[hackpro]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

What I was implying is that the Jays are ready to sell the farm and pay top dollar in an extension for a 38 year old knuckleballer who was a major league journeyman at best 3 seasons ago.

So by that logic you also wouldn't have signed Batista at all given that he was just a journeyman and had a break out year. Nothing stat wise in the history to fall back on, and now is considered a premier player in the league and the face of the franchise.

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

So by that logic you also wouldn't have signed Batista at all given that he was just a journeyman and had a break out year. Nothing stat wise in the history to fall back on, and now is considered a premier player in the league and the face of the franchise.

I forget what 2 top level prospects did they have to give up to get him?

What was the huge salary increase they had to pay him to get him to play here?

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Look people, I hope as much as anyone that I am wrong in the long run.

I am just pointing out the other side of the coin here. The Miami deal was near perfect and addressed a few huge needs. The "needs" are much smaller now yet they are paying arguably a bigger price for less return.

There is no telling what their needs will be mid-season or at the trade deadline but they will have much less in the way of assets to move then.

IMO.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Bautista is a good example, but not Bautista when we acquired him; Bautista NOW.

Bautista was also a journeyman. He's only been a star for three years -- same amount of time as Dickey.

If we don't think Dickey is legit, then we should also fear that Bautista is not legit.

I'm sure a lot of teams would be very happy to give up their 1 and 3 prospects for Bats.

[hackpro]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

I forget what 2 top level prospects did they have to give up to get him?

What was the huge salary increase they had to pay him to get him to play here?

He made 2.4 MM before his big contract, and by all standards compared to others in his calibre, he could have gotten more. Who would yourather sign right now, Bautista or Josh Hamilton given the opportunity?

Prospects are unproven commodities and for the most part should be treated as such. Kerry Wood was the 2nd coming of Clemens, how did that work out? Just like a ton of other "prospects" that don't pan out.

D'Arnaud has had a good amount of injuries for 24 yrs old. Sure, top prospect, but what good is he if he ends up like Mauer? A good hitter sure, but basically becomes an over paid DH that will likely start trying out 1st base just to keep him around.

[3Putts459]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

Bautista is a good example, but not Bautista when we acquired him; Bautista NOW.

Bautista was also a journeyman. He's only been a star for three years -- same amount of time as Dickey.

If we don't think Dickey is legit, then we should also fear that Bautista is not legit.

I'm sure a lot of teams would be very happy to give up their 1 and 3 prospects for Bats.

You're sure?

And sadly if this all-in blows up in their face we may be testing your theory sooner than later.

[Pimento Cheese]

Re: Reports say the Jays have made a monster trade

According to Rosenthal, the Jays and Dickey have agreed on a 2-year, $25 million extension (which is less than what he was asking the Mets for).

The deal is pending a physical, but other than that, it's a done deal.