Will EV kill fossil fuel cars in 8 years?

[duffer_mcmulligan]

Maybe that's the view from your Hobbit hole. I suspect that Elon Musk, with his 15 billion pile of green has a slightly different perspective.

The paper provides an interesting snapshot in time, but misses the mark on the intent of incentives: to spur the market now to keep it going in the hope that continued development drives the unit cost down sufficiently that EV production becomes a sustainable business.

As with most investments, no risk, no reward...

Tesla to date has never shown a profit, which early in it's growth and development cycle, is not surprising. Operating cash flow has been negative every year. Musk is an innovator and a dreamer, but has yet to prove the ability to turn a brick and mortar manufacturing company to a sustainable and profitable enterprise. To date, he has converted heavily dilutive equity raises into property plant and equipment. Musk has also been a huge beneficiary of government subsidies, tax breaks and cheap land offers (read the saga of the location of the Gigafactory). Note as well, that his purchase of Solarcit, if undertaken by any other company, would likely have engendered a board revolt. It was a company on deaths door. Musk's dominant equity position in each (clear conflict of interest and lack of third person objectivity) and the ability of Tesla to essentially access equity markets freely masked an otherwise horrid business decision. Musk has done a very good job garnering every ounce of public support he can for his companies, which is fine, but the jury is still out as to whether the businesss survives long term. Musk is a dreamer and entrepreneur, and a heck of a salesman, but making the transition isn't easy either...

Renewable energy sources and development, to date, is wholly dependent upon government subsidy and support. Germany is living with the growing pains of the stresses wind and solar power put on the power grid without the ability to buffer the gaps between supply periods and demand periods. Several articles by green organizations have trumpeted periods of up to full days where German and British grids have been fully or oversupplied by cheap renewable power. What they fail to mention is that with the huge costs of the installed infrastructure, financed by the citizens of the country through subsidies to the development, that free or cheap power has negative financial returns to the suppliers, which have to be recouped by jacking rates at other times. There is no free lunch. The green press is loathe to write the full story of the real and significant costs people are bearing for supporting this transition. It isn't to say that that people wouldn't want to support the development of green energy, but it is dishonest to not tell the whole truth. Ontario is a case in point as to how to completely mishandle a power grid, bury the rate payers in untenable costs, and drive industry out of the region due to high power costs.

Tme, as ever, will tell.

[Fredk]

Tesla to date has never shown a profit, ...

I don't dispute anything you have written. My suggestion to Bl8d was that it is about more than the immediate gain in cash.

I'm certain that there was a lot of disdain for the automobile in its infancy as well. Nobody new for sure building autos would be a successful venture. There were probably lots of spectacular failures as well. In the end, the internal combustion engine, strapped to four wheels, was a revolutionary change.

My understanding is that both solar and wind, when undertaken on a large scale are now cost competitive with more traditional energy sources. Not as profitable yet, but cost competitive enough to actually generate small profits.

It is too early yet to declare victory or failure. We are also still early in the innovation cycle.

Time will tell...

[duffer_mcmulligan]

I don't dispute anything you have written. My suggestion to Bl8d was that it is about more than the immediate gain in cash.

I'm certain that there was a lot of disdain for the automobile in its infancy as well. Nobody new for sure building autos would be a successful venture. There were probably lots of spectacular failures as well. In the end, the internal combustion engine, strapped to four wheels, was a revolutionary change.

My understanding is that both solar and wind, when undertaken on a large scale are now cost competitive with more traditional energy sources. Not as profitable yet, but cost competitive enough to actually generate small profits.

It is too early yet to declare victory or failure. We are also still early in the innovation cycle.

Time will tell...

I am not saying EV's won't work, far from it, for urban travel and day to day commuting in an environment where electricity prices are likely sustainably low, they are ideal. The premium you pay for one doesn't offset the fuel cost savings when you take into account battery replacement costs after a decade or so, but they will get there.

I have seen seen the same claims in the green press about solar and wind power being cost competitive, but I won't believe it until I see a project undertaken without any government subsidies. So far, I don't think there has been a single one. That is the acid test. In North America, any unsubsidised power Gen projects are natural gas fired. Other than Site C hydro in BC.

Time, yes, will tell....

[Fredk]

...
I have seen seen the same claims in the green press about solar and wind power being cost competitive, but I won't believe it until I see a project undertaken without any government subsidies. So far, I don't think there has been a single one. That is the acid test. In North America, any unsubsidised power Gen projects are natural gas fired. Other than Site C hydro in BC.

Time, yes, will tell....

I believe there is a large solar project in the works for North Africa. I do not know if subsidies are involved.

[golferguy27]

So I picked up my BWM i3 (with Range Extender) little over a month ago. It has been a very good experience. Absolutely no complaints to date. But planning is helpful :-) My kid is a camp counsellor in Muskoka so I decided to take the i3 on a journey that was nearly twice the overall range of the car, full battery charge. Meaning I needed to have a plan.... On the way I stopped at the BMW dealer in Barrie and got Tims breakfast while getting 60 minutes of free charging - Thanks BMW dealer :-). Then I got all the way to the camp to pick up my kid - t be informed she needed to find laundry facility to wash clothes - well that killed my plans for the "eat lunch and charge again" strategy. So after all was said and done, I ended up having to run using the range extender (scooter engine that charges the battery using a 2 gallon tank of gas). This option, while limiting my speed, got me to Gravenhurst, where I found an EV Charge facility at a Tims. This was a pay-to-charge facility, but nicely was a level-3 FAST charger. So for $16 (plus $7 to refill my two gallon tank and a 45 minute charge which happened while I had dinner), I was able to get home on battery again. So slightly inconvenient, but by no means a deal breaker. In reality, my plan was to rent a car for the few times I would need to do such a journey, but given how it worked out, that option may not really be necessary unless exceeding 650km journeys. So got to Muskoka and back for $23 return and it cost me about 1 hour extra due to charging times over and above normal stop times.

So far the electricity cost to charge is about $40 per month - should max out to $60 in dead of winter I think.

So I'm totally happy and have essentially no range anxiety at all now, given the journey mentioned above. Can't recommend it enough. And yes I will get a rebate, which did offer an incentive, but I could see me doing it again in the future, once early stage manufacturing costs normalize, without the need for any additional rebates.

[eagle1244]

I think in time EVs will take over conventional fossil fuel cars. It just takes time for government/private corporations to build up the charging infrastructure. As the cost of production of EVs come down and the technology matures where you get better range per charge it will become mainstream.

[bl8d]

Elon Musk has been busy pink slipping a horde of his employees across the entire engineering and production line for not meeting the expected numbers.

not sure how this will expedite production or ease the tension among Tesla's already anxious pre-order crowd.

[68shark]

So I picked up my BWM i3 (with Range Extender) little over a month ago. It has been a very good experience. Absolutely no complaints to date. But planning is helpful :-) My kid is a camp counsellor in Muskoka so I decided to take the i3 on a journey that was nearly twice the overall range of the car, full battery charge. Meaning I needed to have a plan.... On the way I stopped at the BMW dealer in Barrie and got Tims breakfast while getting 60 minutes of free charging - Thanks BMW dealer :-). Then I got all the way to the camp to pick up my kid - t be informed she needed to find laundry facility to wash clothes - well that killed my plans for the "eat lunch and charge again" strategy. So after all was said and done, I ended up having to run using the range extender (scooter engine that charges the battery using a 2 gallon tank of gas). This option, while limiting my speed, got me to Gravenhurst, where I found an EV Charge facility at a Tims. This was a pay-to-charge facility, but nicely was a level-3 FAST charger. So for $16 (plus $7 to refill my two gallon tank and a 45 minute charge which happened while I had dinner), I was able to get home on battery again. So slightly inconvenient, but by no means a deal breaker. In reality, my plan was to rent a car for the few times I would need to do such a journey, but given how it worked out, that option may not really be necessary unless exceeding 650km journeys. So got to Muskoka and back for $23 return and it cost me about 1 hour extra due to charging times over and above normal stop times.

So far the electricity cost to charge is about $40 per month - should max out to $60 in dead of winter I think.

So I'm totally happy and have essentially no range anxiety at all now, given the journey mentioned above. Can't recommend it enough. And yes I will get a rebate, which did offer an incentive, but I could see me doing it again in the future, once early stage manufacturing costs normalize, without the need for any additional rebates.

A colleague has a Smart car. Ran out of juice. Had to park car overnight and take transit home. Then had to go to the dealer and work in their waiting room while the car was charging. She lives in the country and the range will not allow her to drive to/from work without a charge. She's big on the "environment" but not big on "common sense". I think EV will become the norm but only when chargers are everywhere and the technology allows very fast charging with longer ranges. Until then, it's fossil fuel for me.

[ecgr2035]

A colleague has a Smart car. Ran out of juice. Had to park car overnight and take transit home. Then had to go to the dealer and work in their waiting room while the car was charging. She lives in the country and the range will not allow her to drive to/from work without a charge. She's big on the "environment" but not big on "common sense". I think EV will become the norm but only when chargers are everywhere and the technology allows very fast charging with longer ranges. Until then, it's fossil fuel for me.

Wonder how advisable it is be living out in the country with an EV (Smart car) with a range of <100km.

I live in midtown TO and am seriously considering an e-Golf with a range of 201km. It would replace our second car and be used for commuting to work and city trips primarily. The other car would be used for longer trips. Normally I would be more patient and wait for a battery with a longer range but if I do there is the risk that the $14,000 Ontario rebate may be eliminated once EV sales start taking off.

The only question is when EVs will overtake ICE car sales. I don't think it will happen in 8 yrs - maybe 20 years. The number will vary according to technological advances (battery range), EV prices, gas prices, etc.

And here's another very good reason (health) for city-dwellers to own an EV.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2017/10/25/live-near-a-busy-road-your-odds-of-getting-sick-or-dying-just-got-higher.html