Blue Jays 2016 post-season

[P25]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Notes from Atkins press conference:

-sounds like they're in talks to extend Gibby
-entire coaching staff back minus the asst hitting coach (Owens)
-sounds like Saunders won't be offered a QO while Jose and Edwin will
-sounds like they have equal interest in Jose and Edwin, which I like to hear
-Grilli's option seems to be a formality
-they want to strengthen the bullpen
-an increase in payroll will be a part of their presentation to Rogers
-possible surgery for JD, RM and KP

[Weirfan]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Notes from Atkins press conference:

-sounds like they're in talks to extend Gibby
-entire coaching staff back minus the asst hitting coach (Owens)
-sounds like Saunders won't be offered a QO while Jose and Edwin will
-sounds like they have equal interest in Jose and Edwin, which I like to hear
-Grilli's option seems to be a formality
-they want to strengthen the bullpen
-an increase in payroll will be a part of their presentation to Rogers
-possible surgery for JD, RM and KP

All sounds good but it's all just window dressing at this point and things can change many times between now and spring. I still doubt that resign both EE and JB unless JB's performance was so poor that his value has plummeted and he re-evaluates. Do we really want both ? That means JB is still in the OF , likely them moves to left part time and DH part time and EE goes to 1B.

if we are hurting for lefty bats and they have also said that they need more balanced and by all accounts will get rid of Saunders, keep JB and EE, where do we make moves /trades to get these and where does the money come from.

[P25]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Dexter Fowler's name popped up today. I wonder if he will opt out of his contract. He would be a great fit and make Pillar very tradeable.

[Weirfan]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Dexter Fowler's name popped up today. I wonder if he will opt out of his contract. He would be a great fit and make Pillar very tradeable.

That would be a great pick up. He reminds me of Devon White and is a switch hitter iirc.

On another note, friend just text me, ticket prices to increase again next season

[Arthur Dailey]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Advanced analytics are not prohibitively in favour of Fowler over Pillar.

Fowler age 31 next season WAR 2015 2.2 WAR 2015 4.2 DWAR negative 5 of the last 6 seasons 0.3 this year. Career BA .268 Career OB .366. Career home run and stolen bases projected for a full 162 game season 12 and 19. Earnings in 2016 of $9 million

Pillar age 28. WAR 2015 of 5.2 in 2016 of 3.4. DWAR in 2015 of 2.8 and in 2016 of 2.6. Career BA .267 and OBP of .303. Career HR and SB projections for a single season of 10 and 16.

I realize that DWAR is a flawed stat but the WAR difference over the past 2 seasons goes to the younger and much less expensive Pillar. Fowler has a better OBP, slightly more power but youth and cost is certainly in Pilar's favour and so it appears is defence.


Shapiro will not be throwing money around and therefore it needs to be spent judiciously, shoring up areas of obvious weakness (the bullpen, left field, right field and DH). If Fowler will play LF or RF and is not unduly expensive than a great pick-up. But he is entering free agency off of his all-time best season and his franchise's best season in nearly 70 years. Therefore at the peak of his market value.

[P25]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Pillar was statistically the worst CF in MLB in 2016 from an offensive standpoint. Upgrading there would not be a bad idea. Especially with a switch hitter. He is fantastic defensively - no doubt about it. Fowler could play LF too, so doesn't have to be an either-or proposition.

[golfingoalie]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Josh Reddick would be a decent FA...not really expensive, LH bat can play RF and is supposedly very close with Josh Donaldson. Numbers in LA not nearly as good as his time in Oakland but that might help $ wise.

[Arthur Dailey]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Pillar was statistically the worst CF in MLB in 2016 from an offensive standpoint. Upgrading there would not be a bad idea. Especially with a switch hitter. He is fantastic defensively - no doubt about it. Fowler could play LF too, so doesn't have to be an either-or proposition.

And Fowler seems to fit Shapiro's preferred profile, switch hitter, with some speed and consistent OBP.

Just expressing a concern about buying at the top of the market, which was not how Shapiro tended to operate in Cleveland. However Rogers may provide him with the cash to do that.

[Bellyhungry]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

This threak is making me sad. How long till Spring training?

[Arthur Dailey]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Fangraphs in March of this year ranked the Jays at 13th in the MLB in centre field and the Cubs at 17th. Below is what they had to say. Guess it shows that prognosticators and web writers may not always be right.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-...-center-field/

Pillar showed he could do the same thing he did in the minors in the major leagues — no patience, but enough power and speed and contact to put up nearly a league-average line with plus (plus?) defense. He’s 27, so he’s not likely to improve much — that much, age at level still means — but he’s also very useful right now, and may even have a little power growth left.

Speaking of aging, Dexter Fowler has done so gracefully. Well, at least in terms of what he’s done at the plate. His patience has stuck with him, he hasn’t added more strikeouts as he’s left his peak behind, and a recent uptick in pulling the ball has allowed him to re-find the power that some thought he left behind in Denver. But on defense… let’s just say there’s no consensus on what he’s done on defense. Well, maybe there is some agreement — UZR and DRS have each thought that his defense has alternated between scratch and horrible in center, if they haven’t always agreed on what he’s done in any one particular year — but there’s little to explain the oscillation other than random variance. It’s not really the arm, or errors, and he seems to have the tools, so there’s some hope that good positioning can get the most out of him. And then, of course, there are those that say he’s just not a center fielder anymore.

[Jeffc]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Fangraphs in March of this year ranked the Jays at 13th in the MLB in centre field and the Cubs at 17th. Below is what they had to say. Guess it shows that prognosticators and web writers may not always be right.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-...-center-field/

Pillar showed he could do the same thing he did in the minors in the major leagues — no patience, but enough power and speed and contact to put up nearly a league-average line with plus (plus?) defense. He’s 27, so he’s not likely to improve much — that much, age at level still means — but he’s also very useful right now, and may even have a little power growth left.

Speaking of aging, Dexter Fowler has done so gracefully. Well, at least in terms of what he’s done at the plate. His patience has stuck with him, he hasn’t added more strikeouts as he’s left his peak behind, and a recent uptick in pulling the ball has allowed him to re-find the power that some thought he left behind in Denver. But on defense… let’s just say there’s no consensus on what he’s done on defense. Well, maybe there is some agreement — UZR and DRS have each thought that his defense has alternated between scratch and horrible in center, if they haven’t always agreed on what he’s done in any one particular year — but there’s little to explain the oscillation other than random variance. It’s not really the arm, or errors, and he seems to have the tools, so there’s some hope that good positioning can get the most out of him. And then, of course, there are those that say he’s just not a center fielder anymore.

he also made $512K this year. Seeing as the Jays have a limited budget, are you going to find a better CF for the price?

[Arthur Dailey]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Steve Simmons of the Sun writes today that the Jays' management team has a lot to do.

When the 2014 season ended with the Blue Jays as ordinary as they were for almost two decades, I don’t remember anyone saying to Alex Anthopoulos: “I know how you can fix your team. All you need to do is go out and trade for Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada and sign Russell Martin as a free agent.” That’s all.

They (Shapiro and Atkins) seem to prefer small deals, trades that brought in Jason Grilli or Melvin Upton Jr. or Dioner Navarro without much in return. Relatively cheap deals for veteran commodities whose time in other places has basically expired.

It’s easy to say the Jays could use an outfielder like Dexter Fowler or a first baseman like Joey Votto batting third in the order — but until we know otherwise, we should defer to those in charge, so long as they are smart enough to find a way to keep Edwin Encarnacion in Toronto.

Jose Bautista — he can go elsewhere. He can be replaced, probably for less money and fewer headaches. What Shapiro and Atkins must find are corner outfielders, a little more speed, a little less swing and miss, a touch more youth and athleticism, and a deeper bullpen.

[Arthur Dailey]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Regarding the long discussion regarding back-up catchers.

Cubs are doing OK with 39 year old David Ross. They are his 7th team, he is making $2.5 million and never made more than $3.1. His career numbers are BA .229 and OBP .316.

Heck, Thole's career numbers are BA. 242 and OBP .313

Certainly not advocating resigning Thole. Actually ope that they bring back Navarro but to date, there has been zero talk that they are even contemplating it.

[Weirfan]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Regarding the long discussion regarding back-up catchers.

Cubs are doing OK with 39 year old David Ross. They are his 7th team, he is making $2.5 million and never made more than $3.1. His career numbers are BA .229 and OBP .316.

Heck, Thole's career numbers are BA. 242 and OBP .313

Certainly not advocating resigning Thole. Actually ope that they bring back Navarro but to date, there has been zero talk that they are even contemplating it.

I think the average fan has unrealistic expectations.

I heard that despite his lacklustre numbers,( a real nice second half) that Russell Martin was one of the top offensive catchers in all of baseball this season.

There is not a pile of catchers out there that can call a good game, play almost every day of even play as a back up and bat over .250

[Big Shooter]

Re: Blue Jays 2016 post-season

Certainly not advocating resigning Thole. Actually ope that they bring back Navarro but to date, there has been zero talk that they are even contemplating it.

Dickey ain't (likely) coming back, so No Thole. Whew.