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The Panic over the CoronaVirus [ Covid -19] is both Ridiculous and Unjustifed

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  • So your basic flu has a mortality rate of .05% while covid19 is 3.4% which I assume is the concern

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    • Plenty depends on whether your health care system gets overwhelmed.

      For instance, the case fatality rate outside Hubei in China is under 1%.

      The case fatality rate in South Korea is tracking at 0.6% currently.

      While still much higher than the flu, this is not the end of the world.

      On the other end of the spectrum, we have Italy and Iran between 2.5 and 4%.

      Canadian health care seems set up to give us an experience closer to South Korea and China outside Hubei in my opinion.

      Always hope that the virus mutates in to something less communicable or lethal as well. Some evidence that there already are many different strains out there.

      bladerunner


      Originally posted by par345 View Post
      So your basic flu has a
      mortality rate of .05% while covid19 is 3.4% which I assume is the concern

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Bladerunner View Post
        Plenty depends on whether your health care system gets overwhelmed.

        For instance, the case fatality rate outside Hubei in China is under 1%.

        The case fatality rate in South Korea is tracking at 0.6% currently.

        While still much higher than the flu, this is not the end of the world.

        On the other end of the spectrum, we have Italy and Iran between 2.5 and 4%.

        Canadian health care seems set up to give us an experience closer to South Korea and China outside Hubei in my opinion.

        Always hope that the virus mutates in to something less communicable or lethal as well. Some evidence that there already are many different strains out there.

        bladerunner



        The community spread aspect. ie no person to person contact needed but a virus that may hang in the air and wait for you is a big question and issue
        Last edited by par345; Mar 7, 2020, 09:22 AM.

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        • SWSX was cancelled so might Coachella be cancelled next?

          This week’s drumbeat of coronavirus news ended with an especially loud bang: the cancellation of South By Southwest. The music industry is already buzzing about what might be the next live event to fall, with all eyes turning to Coachella.

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          • Time to start planning the next SARSstock.

            I went to the first one...will the next one be in Wuhan?!?


            Originally posted by WhiteWalker View Post
            SWSX was cancelled so might Coachella be cancelled next?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Bladerunner View Post
              Time to start planning the next SARSstock.

              I went to the first one...will the next one be in Wuhan?!?
              At the rate it's spreading, you may want to by a season's pass.

              Wuhan, Tehran, Seoul and somewhere in Italy will be the big ones for now.

              This thing is still so new I don't think we really know what happens next. It seemed an Asian problem for the first month - just don't go to mainland China or S Korea. Or Tehran. Most people didn't have any of those weird places in mind anyways.

              Then there was Italy, but only the northern bits. And then there was all the rest of Europe. And bits of Africa and America.

              So now we're up to 98 countries and > 3500 deaths. That's a startling progression, given it essentially just started this year. First announced about 10 weeks ago, first death about 7 weeks ago. So zero to 3500 in 7 weeks.

              With such tenuous data and short time frame, it's impossible to predict how the next 10 weeks will go. My guess is we'll see somewhere between another 3500 deaths, and up to 300000.*

              *Both figures are WAGs (Wild .... Guesses).

              Regardless the economic damage is very real. Lots of big sporting events, cultural events (like SXSW) and conferences cancelled, along with all the associated hotel and other travel businesses. Google I/O, Facebook F8, World Mobile, HIMSS, Collision (right here in Toronto, 30,000 people).

              IATA estimates up to $113 billion in losses for airlines. That'll sting.

              Stock price crash means a buying opportunity for some. For others, it's an opportunity to buy cat food for the rest of their lives....
              "Confusion" will be my epitaph
              ...Iggy

              Comment


              • Originally posted by par345 View Post

                The community spread aspect. ie no person to person contact needed but a virus that may hang in the air and wait for you is a big question and issue
                My current understanding is that this virus does not suspend in the air very long, so you may want to learn how to hover your way through public spaces... and don't touch your face...
                In The Bag

                Golf clubs


                "You're just expected to work and die ...
                and maybe buy some useless s**t you don't need inbetween"

                Comment


                • Well one of the hospital/hotel in China that was built in 1 week has collapse . . . no death reported yet.
                  If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by hammy1983 View Post
                    The company I work for has just cancelled all non essential business travel and facility tours.
                    Originally posted by IrishGuy1979 View Post
                    The company I work for cancel large gathering provided guidance on travel and partner meetings.

                    I wonder what parents are doing with March break just one week away.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Chambokl View Post
                      Well one of the hospital/hotel in China that was built in 1 week has collapse . . . no death reported yet.
                      Report I saw said it was a hotel with some history of shoddy work that was built in 2013 not one o the "temp" hospitals.



                      On another note IIHF cancelled the World Women's Hockey Ch in Halifax/Truro.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by bogey5 View Post

                        Report I saw said it was a hotel with some history of shoddy work that was built in 2013 not one o the "temp" hospitals.
                        Yes, you are right . . . the 1st report I saw said it was one of the temp hospital . . . Thanks
                        If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by bogey5 View Post

                          Report I saw said it was a hotel with some history of shoddy work that was built in 2013 not one o the "temp" hospitals.
                          Shoddy work? In China? Surely you're kidding...

                          Comment


                          • BBC reporting quarantine of northern Italy - locking down 16mil people.

                            A quarter of the population is in lockdown as Italy takes drastic action to control Covid-19.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bosco View Post
                              BBC reporting quarantine of northern Italy - locking down 16mil people.

                              https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
                              They started with 50,000 under quarantine but that wasn't nearly enough.

                              I wonder if 16 million is enough.

                              I'll say it again: This thing is going to be really big. It's far far more than a run on Purell and TP in the stores here.

                              Having said that, we were at a surprise birthday party tonight with about 50 people. Everyone continued to kiss or hug or shake hands when greeting and departing....
                              "Confusion" will be my epitaph
                              ...Iggy

                              Comment


                              • Only 50 new cases in China yesterday.

                                South Korea cases down.

                                It looks like the virus can be slowed hence the drastic measures they are undertaking in Italy.

                                bladerunner


                                Originally posted by Ignatius Reilly View Post

                                They started with 50,000 under quarantine but that wasn't nearly enough.

                                I wonder if 16 million is enough.

                                I'll say it again: This thing is going to be really big. It's far far more than a run on Purell and TP in the stores here.

                                Having said that, we were at a surprise birthday party tonight with about 50 people. Everyone


                                continued to kiss or hug or shake hands when greeting and departing....

                                Comment

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