So your basic flu has a mortality rate of .05% while covid19 is 3.4% which I assume is the concern
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Plenty depends on whether your health care system gets overwhelmed.
For instance, the case fatality rate outside Hubei in China is under 1%.
The case fatality rate in South Korea is tracking at 0.6% currently.
While still much higher than the flu, this is not the end of the world.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have Italy and Iran between 2.5 and 4%.
Canadian health care seems set up to give us an experience closer to South Korea and China outside Hubei in my opinion.
Always hope that the virus mutates in to something less communicable or lethal as well. Some evidence that there already are many different strains out there.
bladerunner
Originally posted by par345 View PostComment
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SWSX was cancelled so might Coachella be cancelled next?
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Time to start planning the next SARSstock.
I went to the first one...will the next one be in Wuhan?!?
Originally posted by WhiteWalker View PostComment
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At the rate it's spreading, you may want to by a season's pass.Originally posted by Bladerunner View Post
Wuhan, Tehran, Seoul and somewhere in Italy will be the big ones for now.
This thing is still so new I don't think we really know what happens next. It seemed an Asian problem for the first month - just don't go to mainland China or S Korea. Or Tehran. Most people didn't have any of those weird places in mind anyways.
Then there was Italy, but only the northern bits. And then there was all the rest of Europe. And bits of Africa and America.
So now we're up to 98 countries and > 3500 deaths. That's a startling progression, given it essentially just started this year. First announced about 10 weeks ago, first death about 7 weeks ago. So zero to 3500 in 7 weeks.
With such tenuous data and short time frame, it's impossible to predict how the next 10 weeks will go. My guess is we'll see somewhere between another 3500 deaths, and up to 300000.*
*Both figures are WAGs (Wild .... Guesses).
Regardless the economic damage is very real. Lots of big sporting events, cultural events (like SXSW) and conferences cancelled, along with all the associated hotel and other travel businesses. Google I/O, Facebook F8, World Mobile, HIMSS, Collision (right here in Toronto, 30,000 people).
IATA estimates up to $113 billion in losses for airlines. That'll sting.
Stock price crash means a buying opportunity for some. For others, it's an opportunity to buy cat food for the rest of their lives...."Confusion" will be my epitaph
...IggyComment
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My current understanding is that this virus does not suspend in the air very long, so you may want to learn how to hover your way through public spaces... and don't touch your face...Originally posted by par345 View Post
In The Bag
Golf clubs
"You're just expected to work and die ...
and maybe buy some useless s**t you don't need inbetween"Comment
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Well one of the hospital/hotel in China that was built in 1 week has collapse . . . no death reported yet.If you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.Comment
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Report I saw said it was a hotel with some history of shoddy work that was built in 2013 not one o the "temp" hospitals.Originally posted by Chambokl View Post
On another note IIHF cancelled the World Women's Hockey Ch in Halifax/Truro.Comment
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Yes, you are right . . . the 1st report I saw said it was one of the temp hospital . . . ThanksOriginally posted by bogey5 View PostIf you think it's hard to meet new people, try picking up the wrong golf ball.Comment
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BBC reporting quarantine of northern Italy - locking down 16mil people.
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They started with 50,000 under quarantine but that wasn't nearly enough.Originally posted by Bosco View Post
I wonder if 16 million is enough.
I'll say it again: This thing is going to be really big. It's far far more than a run on Purell and TP in the stores here.
Having said that, we were at a surprise birthday party tonight with about 50 people. Everyone continued to kiss or hug or shake hands when greeting and departing....
"Confusion" will be my epitaph
...IggyComment
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Only 50 new cases in China yesterday.
South Korea cases down.
It looks like the virus can be slowed hence the drastic measures they are undertaking in Italy.
bladerunner
Originally posted by Ignatius Reilly View Post
They started with 50,000 under quarantine but that wasn't nearly enough.
I wonder if 16 million is enough.
I'll say it again: This thing is going to be really big. It's far far more than a run on Purell and TP in the stores here.
Having said that, we were at a surprise birthday party tonight with about 50 people. Everyone
continued to kiss or hug or shake hands when greeting and departing....Comment
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