The Panic over the CoronaVirus [ Covid -19] is both Ridiculous and Unjustifed

[WWFS]

I assume these charts are available in other regions? This is Durham as of tonight. Nearly 1/3 of (and the largest single) source of outbreak is home contact and we’re locked down? I mean I get that if we all stay home spread slows a lot eventually, like after 6 - 7 weeks. But data like this makes it harder to support the lockdown as the solution.

I look at it very differently. Household Contact has to be one of the most useless stats since "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction?". Of course Household Contact will be a prominent number. It's an environment where masks are seldom worn and close contact is a fact of life. It's a ready made environment to quickly transmit COVID to another ~1.9 people.

In every case where a household went from 0 to1+ cases, the origin of that mini-outbreak was from outside the home. (Unless you purchased a new home that had the built-in COVID option ).

By the nature of households, current household mobility, and current testing frequency, Household Contact will always be a multiple of other transmission sources.

[Blassy]

https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/news/local/canadians-buzz-through-buffalo-as-a-way-to-beat-border-closure/71-07c93156-1365-46ab-80c1-613e5b1d7938

friend in Buffalo said the helicopters are constant.
Can’t stop snowbirds from flying south and these guys are probably raking it in.

[guitarman]

I look at it very differently. Household Contact has to be one of the most useless stats since "Do you think the country is headed in the right direction?". Of course Household Contact will be a prominent number. It's an environment where masks are seldom worn and close contact is a fact of life. It's a ready made environment to quickly transmit COVID to another ~1.9 people.

In every case where a household went from 0 to1+ cases, the origin of that mini-outbreak was from outside the home. (Unless you purchased a new home that had the built-in COVID option ).

By the nature of households, current household mobility, and current testing frequency, Household Contact will always be a multiple of other transmission sources.

OMG we need to lock people out of their homes.

[Weirfan]

Quebec looking to go full lockdown this weekend including curfews

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...box=1609856673

Well, things there ( and here) are not working with the current approach so something more needs to be done.

problem is, until we have widespread vaccination , which is not likely until end of 2021 , this will just be a stop gap measure to reduce load on Health Care....IF people abide by the rules. Many other countries have done this the impact is temporary.

That said, if we can keep the numbers from increasing any more, even decrease and get to spring it could buy some much needed time.

[Marty Canuck]

I cannot promise you I have the answers but it feels to me that 2 factors are driving the community transmission. First is we should stop using the word lockdown, it is not a lockdown, there is still all kinds of freedom to go and work in tight, cramped spaces, little incentive to not go to work sick, and of course bring the infection home and spread it or from home to work and spread it. The second is people clearly are moving around significantly more from house to house visiting friends and relatives and spreading it that way in violation of the rules. I believe this can be confirmed by looking at mobile phone data that shows the overall volume of people moving around. I would expect someone could show a very defined connection between the amount of overall mobility and the rate of transmission as a direct cause and effect. Other variables may swing it up and down but the trend line is likely there.

The only way numbers will drop are people need to cut down their mobility by a large amount. I am pretty well convinced nothing else will work. I think much of what our provincial government has done amounts to political theatre and photo ops lately, too many have tuned it out and are moving around however they want. If that does not end the numbers do not go down.

Conversely opening things up will only see numbers go up even more. We will not have anything close to a critical mass vaccinated for up to or even over 1/2 year. I foresee naggingly high numbers from now until summer.

No you are correct and I agree that “lockdown” is the wrong term entirely. It is voluntary to quite an extent since it isn’t really very enforceable by sheer numbers alone.

As we see with our Gov’t representatives there are many, many people who will ignore the rules. Why? There’s a factor of “if I just do this it won’t matter” and I admit we are not perfect in this sense either but we’ve been pretty darn diligent.

[Chambokl]

https://www.wgrz.com/mobile/article/...1-613e5b1d7938
friend in Buffalo said the helicopters are constant.
Can’t stop snowbirds from flying south and these guys are probably raking it in.

I wonder how they declare to customs . . . would they be illegals

Somebody I know did this, I will ask him when he is back unless somebody knows.

[Weirfan]

I wonder how they declare to customs . . . would they be illegals

Somebody I know did this, I will ask him when he is back unless somebody knows.

It's not illegal to travel to the US, 10's of thousands of people have and are heading South. They land at Buff airport and go thru normal process.

on a US forum , they are going crazy because a Canadian couple flew to Arizona and were given free covid 19 vaccinations ahead of US citizens.

[WWFS]

I wonder how they declare to customs . . . would they be illegals

Somebody I know did this, I will ask him when he is back unless somebody knows.

When they land in Buffalo, they must clear customs as would anyone else flying into the US. Failure to do so would not only put the passengers at risk, the company flying them in would be faced with a "seizure of aircraft". They probably land at the FBO at KBUF and they have customs available there.

[Chambokl]

When they land in Buffalo, they must clear customs as would anyone else flying into the US. Failure to do so would not only put the passengers at risk, the company flying them in would be faced with a "seizure of aircraft". They probably land at the FBO at KBUF and they have customs available there.

That place looks like a little airport . . . maybe for the rich and famous so have a custom office. Coming back to Canada . . . if still closed they will land at Hamilton airport?

[WWFS]

That place looks like a little airport . . . maybe for the rich and famous so have a custom office. Coming back to Canada . . . if still closed they will land at Hamilton airport?

KBUF is an "Int'l", airport open 24/7. The FBO is open 24/7. Customs normal hours are 8:00 AM till midnight, but can/will handle off-hous with 24 hrs. notice.


Coming back, they can land anywhere in Canada they want as long as customs are available. If customs are not available at that Canadian field, customs will often allow you to call by phone to notify them of your arrival.

When coming back you can also just drive across the border.

[Blassy]

That place looks like a little airport . . . maybe for the rich and famous so have a custom office. Coming back to Canada . . . if still closed they will land at Hamilton airport?

Hardly for the rich and famous. Just a small regional airport with domestic flights. We fly out of there few times a year. Ridiculously convenient for me where I live for our trips to Florida and Hilton head. Park in front. Walk to terminal. No customs needed because it only handles domestic flights. We obviously go through customs when we drive back over so not sure how it’s handled hopping in a helicopter.

[Jeffc]

This just posted. I would like to see how they are going to police this. The outdoor rinks have been a problem but the rest is ridiculous IMHO.

NEW:
@ottawahealth
will mandate owners/operators set a limit of 25 people on: Skating rinks Top/bottom of ski hills and toboggan hills Cross-country ski trails

[Marty Canuck]

It's not illegal to travel to the US, 10's of thousands of people have and are heading South. They land at Buff airport and go thru normal process.

on a US forum , they are going crazy because a Canadian couple flew to Arizona and were given free covid 19 vaccinations ahead of US citizens.

CBC had one about Canadians in FL getting in on the front of the line for vaccines too. Only from the Canadians perspective but I wondered how the Yanks (actually an orange one in particular) would feel about Canadians getting in on their vaccine supply.

[Chambokl]

Hardly for the rich and famous. Just a small regional airport with domestic flights. We fly out of there few times a year. Ridiculously convenient for me where I live for our trips to Florida and Hilton head. Park in front. Walk to terminal. No customs needed because it only handles domestic flights. We obviously go through customs when we drive back over so not sure how it’s handled hopping in a helicopter.

That is exactly what I thought (and was afraid). Not that many airport in Canada has Custom . . .for example if you fly out of Rouyn-Noranda, Val D'Or, North Bay, Sudbury, etc . . . to Cuba, Mexico, etc . . . you have to make a stop in Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa . . . on the way back to go through customs. Land in Ottawa, go through custon with your luggage and back on the same plane to your destination . . .

So we are back at landing to Buffalo and how are they handling custom . . . just curious (and bored), I don't really care.

[WWFS]

That is exactly what I thought (and was afraid). Not that many airport in Canada has Custom . . .for example if you fly out of Rouyn-Noranda, Val D'Or, North Bay, Sudbury, etc . . . to Cuba, Mexico, etc . . . you have to make a stop in Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa . . . on the way back to go through customs. Land in Ottawa, go through custon with your luggage and back on the same plane to your destination . . .

So we are back at landing to Buffalo and how are they handling custom . . . just curious (and bored), I don't really care.

As I said earlier, Buffalo has customs open 8:00 am till midnight, 7 days a week. The Buffalo airport and FBO are open 24 hours a day, and customs will usually do an after hours call to the FBO with 24 hours notice.