The Panic over the CoronaVirus [ Covid -19] is both Ridiculous and Unjustifed

[Arthur Dailey]

I am not in general a 'conspiracy theorist' however ............
Just published a couple of hours ago in the National Post.

President Xi Jinping tells China's troops to focus on 'preparing to go to war'

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/chinese-president-xi-jinping-tells-troops-to-focus-on-preparing-to-go-war-reports

[Marty Canuck]

Regarding the outbreak attributed to the spin gym in Hamilton with a reported 60 infections, despite management following local Public Health guidelines:



https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/10/15/how-were-so-many-infected-everything-you-need-to-know-about-hamiltons-spinco-outbreak.html

In a Spin Gym you are dealing with a small room. People my be 6 feet apart but they are all working out for 60 minutes or so and breathing heavily the whole time. It’s not a place I would go to.

I was at my gym this morning again. It is a mega gym (LA Fitness). In the morning there are maybe 30 people in there at any time. It is very easy to work out away from other people.

I wear a mask when moving around the gym but not while doing the actual exercise stuff. When you do need to breathe harder like that a mask does impede the oxygen flow too much. Before the gym re-opened I thought “I can wear the mask the whole time” but reality is you just can’t unless you are wearing one so porous that it wouldn’t help anyway.

Still a lot to learn on this thing. I’ll keep going to the gym for now but if it gets busier then I’ll likely drop it.

[Arthur Dailey]

This article (excerpts below) sums up the disdain that the majority of those trained in infectious diseases have for the Barrington Declaration, which was supported by one of the Kochs and is as stated by Dr. Gerald Evans (paraphrasing) 'based on ideology rather than science'.


Bruce Arthur / The Star / Thu., Oct. 15, 2020

‘Dangerous.’ ‘Hallucinatory.’ The new declaration pushing for herd immunity is not looking at the science, or looking out for you

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star...t-for-you.html

Nobody cheers for shuttered shops, closing restaurants, boarded-up bars. Nobody is cheering for the economy to crater, for schools to close, for hospitals to be overwhelmed, to be shut in. And people, not even a year into this decade-like pandemic, are tired.

But nobody has offered a more reasonable solution, either, when your epidemic response strategy fails. If you take care of public health, the economy can recover. It’s a shared, and sequential, approach.

Yet, enter the Great Barrington Declaration. The document is named after the Massachusetts town where the initial meeting was held by the right-wing libertarian American Institute for Economic Research, and was created by Oxford epidemiologist Dr. Sunetra Gupta, and medical professors Dr. Martin Kulldorff of Harvard and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford. The whole thing is backed by right-wing billionaire Charles Koch. It holds that lockdowns are more damaging that the alternative.

…

Is there good science associated with this? No. Are there citations or references? No. Can any prankster sign it? Yes. Was it recently pushed by the Toronto Sun, which called it “a worthwhile document,” and in a strangely unbylined piece in the National Post, and in some conservative talk radio circles? Yes. Is the Trump administration interested? Yes.

Is it unscientific libertarian hooey, at the expense of our shared humanity? Oh, yes. Absolutely.

“My personal view was I was mortified by that,” says Dr. Gerald Evans, the chair of the division of infectious diseases at Queen’s University, and a volunteer member of the province’s science table. “My thought at the time was this was an ideologically bent statement, and had nothing to do as much with the science, and what we’re facing.“

“Quite frankly, it’s a dangerous philosophy,” says Dr. Isaac Bogoch, infectious diseases specialist at the University of Toronto. “And there’s some significant, fundamental epidemiological, infectious-diseases and public health flaws in this.”

“This is a hallucinatory document,” says Dr. Amir Attaran, a professor of law and epidemiology at the University of Ottawa.

First, protecting vulnerable people is impossible. As Bogoch notes, up to 40 to 50 per cent of Canadians either fall into a vulnerable category, or are closely connected with someone who does.

“It really promotes this concept of cocooning, where you can somehow shield vulnerable populations from getting COVID-19,” says Bogoch. “That concept doesn’t pan out in reality … Vulnerable populations do not live in hermetically sealed bags, and they’re going to be exposed, despite our best efforts. So we have to keep community rates as low as possible to keep people from getting this infection.”

But even if we could, nobody knows what COVID immunity looks like, or how long it might last. Britain started to execute a plan based on herd immunity earlier this year, and then realized they’d gotten the maths wrong.

“There has never been a virus that we’ve gotten under control with herd immunity except through immunization,” says Evans. “It’s an extension of the British government early on in the spring: ‘oh, let’s let everyone get infected, sure people will die, but who the heck cares? We’ll have immunity.’ You can’t achieve herd immunity this way.”

Oh, and the economy doesn’t get saved if you let the disease run wild. That, in theory, is the point of this.

“Excluding oil-dependent provinces, whose problems go beyond COVID, the provinces which seem least economically damaged in 2020 are those which fought COVID aggressively, to the point of virtual elimination,” says Attaran. “Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Manitoba. The most economically damaged are those which dithered most on controlling it: Ontario, and Quebec.

“If a fundamental premise of the Barrington bull---t is that an embrace of further infection will help us regain normal, it’s wrong in both public health and economics.”

…..

“Because we can’t shield the most vulnerable populations as well as this declaration portrays, the path to quote unquote herd immunity … is paved with dead bodies,” says Bogoch. “It is. You can argue what the infection fatality ratio is. It might be 0.5. It might be 0.7. It’s irrelevant. It’s something. And when you factor that across the population, knowing that you can’t shield your vulnerable populations, that is an unacceptable number of deaths, no matter how you calculate it.”

Bogoch notes that 0.5 per cent of 38 million Canadians would be 190,000 dead.

…..

Meanwhile, I could have called more or less every respectable infectious diseases doctor or epidemiologist in Canada, but they are putting markers down anyway. The John Snow Memorandum, named after the famed English doctor who traced the source of cholera in London in 1854, simply lays out the science and stands for a humane approach, and as with climate change, the science is on one side of the argument. Snow’s far more reputable signatures are piling up.

So what have we learned? People who push herd immunity are not following the science, and are not actually looking out for you. They’re looking for an easy alternative to the hard work of communal sacrifice and investing in public health. Nobody wants lockdowns. But nobody should want to burn down the village to save it, either.

[PistolPete]

Rumor is Halton and York will be moving back to modified stage 2 in the upcoming days (Hamilton could get tossed in as well). I find it interesting that it looks like Toronto is showing some stabilization in their metrics (7 day new cases, new hospitalizations and % positivity) weeks before any impact of the restrictions would have had impact. ICU numbers across Ontario also remain below the best case scenario for today put out by the modelers a week ago (funny how this keeps happening). Chance we may have called the restriction putt a bit early (I do understand however that making the decision to risk it is not a easy one)

That said I am shocked how many people are still partaking in indoor dining as cases rise. Went to pickup takeout wings at a local Turtle Jacks and it was PACKED. I am from a pretty low risk demographic and am not I alarmist by any means and thus remain shocked at how many people don't seem to care. (more power to them but still surprising)

[chrish8]

I can't believe this thread is still active, have you not all heard COVID is canceled?

The USA has proven with a private helicopter to fly you to a dedicated hospital with a team of medical doctors looking after you 24/7 and giving you experimental drugs not accessible to the public you can beat this thing in 3 days and even take a joy ride in between resting with private security.

It is time Canada steps up it's medical system.

[hackerhare]

Rumor is Halton and York will be moving back to modified stage 2 in the upcoming days (Hamilton could get tossed in as well). I find it interesting that it looks like Toronto is showing some stabilization in their metrics (7 day new cases, new hospitalizations and % positivity) weeks before any impact of the restrictions would have had impact. ICU numbers across Ontario also remain below the best case scenario for today put out by the modelers a week ago (funny how this keeps happening). Chance we may have called the restriction putt a bit early (I do understand however that making the decision to risk it is not a easy one)

That said I am shocked how many people are still partaking in indoor dining as cases rise. Went to pickup takeout wings at a local Turtle Jacks and it was PACKED. I am from a pretty low risk demographic and am not I alarmist by any means and thus remain shocked at how many people don't seem to care. (more power to them but still surprising)

All on steroids. That’s why they felt so good.

[Arthur Dailey]

I can't believe this thread is still active, have you not all heard COVID is canceled?

The USA has proven with a private helicopter to fly you to a dedicated hospital with a team of medical doctors looking after you 24/7 and giving you experimental drugs not accessible to the public you can beat this thing in 3 days and even take a joy ride in between resting with private security.

It is time Canada steps up it's medical system.

What nest an endorsement of Justin's actions?

You should PM Dave Pratt, it is obvious that he would benefit from the assistance of an insurance broker. I posted that buying insurance without using a broker is like buying a house without using a real estate agent.

[Arthur Dailey]

For those of you who are still trying to refute the need for increased restrictions due to 'low hospitalization rates', here is an evisceration of that position, published in that left wing outlet the Toronto Sun and authored by the President and CEO of the Ontario Hospital Association. Excerpts below. Including addressing the backlog of surgeries due to the 'shutdown' of elective surgery during the 'first wave'.

Hospitals are Ontario's last line of defence in pandemic
Anthony Dale/ Toronto Sun / :Oct 16, 2020

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...ce-in-pandemic

As emphasized by the Toronto Sun editorial board in early March, “what we’re learning from COVID-19 in Ontario is something we’ve known for decades and have not addressed. That is that our hospitals are routinely running at their operating capacities and in many cases, over capacity.”

Prior to the pandemic, the focus of the health-care debate in Ontario was on ending hallway health care. It is a sign of system out of balance and that more care outside the hospital setting is desperately needed.

Hospitals have more than done their part to shift resources and become efficient.
.......

Fast forward to today. Most of the standby capacity created in hospitals at the onset of the pandemic has been filled and hospitals are already experiencing significant overcrowding.

In our larger cities and towns, many large community hospitals and health science centres are full. Occupancy ranges from the mid-90s to over 100%. With 5,000 patients awaiting discharge to another more appropriate setting and long-term care homes grappling with the challenges of a second wave, hospitals are facing an impossible situation.

When hospitals warn that the system risks being overwhelmed from the second wave of COVID-19, they are rightfully worried about having enough critical care capacity. But they are also incredibly worried about how that COVID surge will cripple their capability to maintain all their other services and roles too.

........

The backlog of cancelled surgeries from wave one is estimated to be almost 150,000. Not only do we need to tackle this backlog, but we need to keep it from getting worse. Another shutdown in surgeries simply isn’t an option.

In recent weeks, the hospital sector has repeatedly called for more restrictive public health measures in specific regions of the province. While none of us wants to return to a full lockdown, these targeted health measures were needed to tackle COVID-19 in crowded, close-contact, and confined indoor spaces.

In a world of terrible tradeoffs, where political leaders of all stripes have been forced to make extremely difficult decisions with painful consequences, Premier Doug Ford and his cabinet made the right call.

Hospitals are incredibly grateful for the sacrifices being made by so many Ontario businesses, especially restaurants, bars and gyms.

We ask all elected officials and the people of this province to come together once again as Team Ontario. Together we can stop the community spread of COVID-19 and ensure that access to all life-saving hospital care continues.

Failure is not an option. The health and lives of tens of thousands of people — our neighbours, our friends and our family members — hang in the balance. That’s why Ontario’s hospitals ask for your continued patience, and support.

[Bladerunner]

PistolPete Arthur Dailey

Yes, it is remarkable that the modelers are always wrong. Overpromise....under deliver....or should it be the reverse?

Interesting that Quebec has now surpassed Sweden in deaths. I wonder if the media all over the world will attack Quebec's strategy as it has attacked Sweden?

As for the hospital CEO letter, his interest in playing it safe is obvious. Hospital budgets have been eviscerated due to people like him and our governement scaring patients away from the hospitals in March/April as well as the unfortunate decision to halt most elective surgeries everywhere in the province. Now, it is time to catch up on those OR's and bring in some $$$ to the hospitals.

I'm only slightly jaded

bladerunner

[Arthur Dailey]

PistolPete Arthur Dailey

Yes, it is remarkable that the modelers are always wrong. Overpromise....under deliver....or should it be the reverse?

Interesting that Quebec has now surpassed Sweden in deaths. I wonder if the media all over the world will attack Quebec's strategy as it has attacked Sweden?

As for the hospital CEO letter, his interest in playing it safe is obvious. Hospital budgets have been eviscerated due to people like him and our governement scaring patients away from the hospitals in March/April as well as the unfortunate decision to halt most elective surgeries everywhere in the province. Now, it is time to catch up on those OR's and bring in some $$$ to the hospitals.

I'm only slightly jaded

bladerunner

Actually the projections issued by Quebec back in the spring are now surprisingly accurate regarding deaths, however their projections were for the end of April rather than for mid October..

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/quebec-p...l-30-1.4886819

As of October 15th there were 9,699 COVID related deaths in all of Canada. 6,005 of those in Quebec.

Therefore the most useful study would probably be to compare the differences in government interventions between Quebec and its neighbouring provinces.

Atlantic Canada was fairly successful in implementing a strict 'bubble'.

Quebec was however one of the first provinces to re-open bars & restaurants (June 15) and schools (many in May).

[Arthur Dailey]

I am now spending an inordinate amount of time at work dealing with COVID related issues.

The daily screening of all staff and visitors according to Ontario Regulations.
Distributing PPEs and ensuring that sanitizer, soap etc are available and that regular cleaning/disinfecting is being performed.
Checking to ensure that staff are following rules regarding the wearing of PPE's.

Additionally now, reports of worker's household or family members being exposed to positive cases or people who have tested positive.
Calls from companies employing contractors, etc informing us that members of their staff have tested positive.
Even personal exposure to someone who had a family member test positive. Thankfully we were both wearing masks, practicing social distancing and kept our conversation to less than 15 minutes. Meaning that it was a 'low' risk encounter and that I need only self-monitor. Although in my situation that still is somewhat 'never racking'.

The disruption to business activities, including the requirement to send staff home and perform a deep cleaning if one of the staff does test positive is perhaps even worse than if we were to close down for one or two weeks and then resume 'normal' operations.

[Bladerunner]

Arthur Dailey


"The disruption to business activities, including the requirement to send staff home and perform a deep cleaning if one of the staff does test positive is perhaps even worse than if we were to close down for one or two weeks and then resume 'normal' operations."

Yes, there is plenty of extra work being done at all businesses due to COVID.

However, I'm not sure I follow your statement. We are not going back to 'normal' operations until immunity is achieved one way or another (hopefully vaccine). Closing everything for one to two weeks would not scrub Ontario of COVID.

Perhaps I'm not understanding your statement...

bladerunner

[trunckslammer1]

The disruption to business activities, including the requirement to send staff home and perform a deep cleaning if one of the staff does test positive is perhaps even worse than if we were to close down for one or two weeks and then resume 'normal' operations.

This is what I am most concern about. For this reason, we are in a lockdown mode since the beginning. Even if we are allowed to open, I will not. Phone in orders only, curbside pickup.

[Giller31]

Rumor is Halton and York will be moving back to modified stage 2 in the upcoming days (Hamilton could get tossed in as well).

Thought it would get announced yesterday, but looks like today could be the day they pull the trigger. Guess we'll see at 1pm-ish.

[Arthur Dailey]

Arthur Dailey


"The disruption to business activities, including the requirement to send staff home and perform a deep cleaning if one of the staff does test positive is perhaps even worse than if we were to close down for one or two weeks and then resume 'normal' operations."

Yes, there is plenty of extra work being done at all businesses due to COVID.

However, I'm not sure I follow your statement. We are not going back to 'normal' operations until immunity is achieved one way or another (hopefully vaccine). Closing everything for one to two weeks would not scrub Ontario of COVID.

Perhaps I'm not understanding your statement...

bladerunner

As we track all of our 'numbers' regarding productivity, what we have determined is that over the past 2 weeks our 'cost per unit produced' which includes labour, materials, scrap/defect rates and energy consumption is roughly 40% worse than it was immediately after we returned from the shutdown during the 1st wave. We were deemed an 'essential service' but closed voluntarily for a number of weeks during the initial 'wave'.

We are now attempting to determine whether it would be more cost effective to close for an additional 2 weeks and re-open when the 2nd wave subsides or to continue operating at this reduced efficiency. Of course unless the rest of the community shuts down/restricts activities, then there is no guarantee that the 2nd wave will subside.

Meanwhile there is still ongoing debate regarding the Swedish approach.

Below is a link to and excerpts from the Time magazine article authored by human rights activist Kelly Bjorklund and University of Gothenburg molecular biology professor Andrew Ewing. Neither are trained in infectious diseases, however they are scathing in their denunciation of the ‘Swedish Approach’. Among their statements.

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

Not only did these lack of measures likely result in more infections and deaths, but it didn’t even help the economy: Sweden has fared worse economically than other Nordic countries throughout the pandemic.

Average daily cases rose 173% nationwide from Sept. 2-8 to Sept. 30-Oct. 6 and in Stockholm that number increased 405% for the same period. Though some have argued that rising case numbers can be attributed to increased testing, a recent study of Stockholm’s wastewater published Oct. 5 by the Swedish Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) argues otherwise.

In an email on April 5, Tegnell wrote to Mike Catchpole, the chief scientist at the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC): “We are quite worried about the statement ECDC has been preparing about masks.” Tegnell attached a document in which he expresses concern that ECDC recommending facemasks would “imply that the spread is airborne which would seriously harm further communication and trust among the population and health care workers” and concludes “we would like to warn against the publication of this advice.”

Chris Selley in the National Post today writes a defense of the Swedish approach. However he lists a number of statistics which tend to demonstrate that perhaps he is not 100% convinced.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-swedens-covid-experience-offers-us-important-lessons-not-all-of-them-cautionary

Surely we have known for months that Sweden’s less draconian approach to lockdown would wind up associated with a conspicuously bad performance: 584 of every million Swedes have passed away, versus 116 Danes, 63 Finns and 51 Norwegians. (Canada’s figure is 255.)

Sweden’s pandemic death toll is heavily concentrated in Stockholm County, where the mortality rate stands at 1,009 per million. That’s world-class bad, though not as bad as Madrid (1,471), Montreal (1,705) or New York City (2,310).

Sweden’s long-term care homes, like Ontario’s and Quebec’s, were woefully unprepared: a study published in late July estimated 47 per cent of fatalities were care-home residents. (In Canada it’s roughly 80 per cent.)

Swedes were hearing the same messages in the spring we were — about social distancing, handwashing, working from home, avoiding crowds. Many of the things cited as evidence of Sweden losing its mind — restaurants and cafés open, children in schools — were true in other European countries. The main difference is that Swedish authorities were mostly advising caution, whereas ours were commanding. All the evidence suggests most Swedes listened.

“The main cinema chain in Sweden, Filmstaden, closed on the 17th of March so few people were attending,” Lund University ethnographer Rachel Elisabeth Irwin observes in a July article examining the media’s COVID mythmaking about Sweden. “Already (in) March 2020, the numbers of business going into administration … had increased, with the hospitality industry seeing an increase of 1,400 per cent.”